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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/2026-senate/

Recent political shifts have moved several key races in Democrats’ favor, giving the minority party an outside chance to pull off a shocker. GOP Gov. Brian Kemp isn’t running in Georgia, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper jumped in the North Carolina race and Republican infighting in Texas could prove disastrous.

The Big Four:

Georgia: Sen. Jon Ossoff (Ga.), the cycle’s most endangered Democrat, is raising loads of money. Kemp is throwing his weight behind former college football coach Derek Dooley, an untested political novice locked in a messy primary with Georgia GOP Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter.

Trump’s team isn’t happy with Kemp for boosting Dooley. Ossoff could squeak out a general election win, but it won’t be easy in a state that went for Trump last November.

Michigan: The Wolverine State is almost the mirror image of Georgia. Republicans lined up behind former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) in 2024. Meanwhile, Democrats have a messy primary to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) with no clear favorite.

Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) hasn’t cleared the field like Slotkin did last cycle. Stevens is battling against state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and progressive darling Abdul El-Sayed in a primary that won’t be settled until August 2026. Republicans haven’t won a Senate seat in Michigan since 1994, but Trump carried the state in 2024.

North Carolina: The general election will likely be Cooper against RNC Chair Michael Whatley. Democrats feel great about nabbing a top-tier recruit in Cooper, the popular two-term former governor. Republicans are relieved they’ve all coalesced quickly around Whatley and averted a primary.

Cooper’s impressive electoral track record statewide could make him the favorite, especially because Whatley is so unknown. But Republicans note that North Carolina backed Trump three times in a row. The question is how Whatley — the ultimate political insider — will fare in a statewide race.

Maine: There are tons of unresolved issues in the Pine Tree State, mainly whether Democratic Gov. Janet Mills will run. Mills, 77, is a well-liked executive in a state that has a long history of electing Democrats statewide — except when they’re running against Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).

Collins, 72, has said she intends to run. And she’s raising money. But at a time when the White House is thumbing its nose at Congress and the Appropriations Committee that Collins chairs, this isn’t a guarantee.

Senate GOP leaders believe Collins is the only Republican who can win in Maine. So they’re willing to let Collins freelance when she needs to — like voting against the reconciliation bill and the rescissions package.[/quote]
NC - Copper will win. - He's super beloved and the NC Dem chair is busting her butt.
Michigan - Whatever Dem wins the primary will win. That race might have been tight in 2024 but with Trump not on the ballot, I don't see an R winning Michigan. 
GA - Ossoff will win. He has the power of incumbency and the GOP are all lightweights.
Maine is a toss-up, as is Iowa.
I hope Dems can flip Texas but they won't with Colin Allred. [b]Texans won't vote for Republican lite when they can have full fat.[/b][/quote]
Love this description. [/quote]

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