Reply to If Biden doesn’t ace the first debate, will he be replaced at the convention?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Someone mentioned polling above

The 2016 polling was actually within margin of error

Since then, polling has skewed more heavily R and D’s keep beating polls by multiple points

That is the current trend. We shall see where we land in November[/quote]

The truth is that Trump is as far behind Biden as he was in 2020.  He's at least 4 points behind.  But the media and polls want to make this seem like a close race, so they use biased polling models that lean right and show a closer race, maybe even one leaning right for Trump.  But both candidates have about the same percentage of their respective party base, so they are neck and neck there.  But the reality is that the independent vote leaned slightly left before the Trump judgement in NY and is now leaning even more left after the judgement in NY.  And after the debate, when Trump's dementia devolves into more shark, battery and boat stories, the independent vote will lean more left.  Trump needs some major media swing by September to stop the slow and steady attrition of his non-base support.  Because right now, he's in a slow and steady nickel and diming of the middle 40% of the electorate.[/quote]

Both of you are clueless.

Trump overperformed 2020 polling. Substantially. Just look at 2020 polls and the final outcomes. RCP has them. The polls were definitely within margin of error for the 2022 midterms. The Ds won almost all the close elections but those were tiny wins. Just look at the polls!

And the last post is either someone trolling or someone delusional.[/quote]

So, in other words, the polls are garbage, regardless of whether the show Trump or Biden ahead. I agree, which is what I have posted every time someone goes on to the polling thread crowing about how Trump is leading. And someone better tell all the patriots who are girding to start a civil war because Trump is ahead in the polls and may yet not win the election.[/quote]

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