Reply to All these rejections and deferrals reported on DCUM and CC are shocking and discouraging

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I think people are missing the math on reaches.

My kid is waiting on 5 reach RD schools. College vine says we have the following chances to get in:

25%
20%
20%
15%
15%

So chance of rejection:
75%
80%
80%
85%
85%

Multiply all the rejection % .75*.8*.8*.85*.835 = 35%

We have a 35% chance to be rejected by the 5 remaining reaches. So he’s not counting too much on the reaches.

And that’s with a good recommendation and good essays. 
[/quote]

The stats don't really work that way. These are not fully independent chances. Similar students are applying to all of these and they are likely all looking for similar things. You chance of rejections from all 5 is likely closer to the 75%.[/quote]

+1 this is how kids end up with totally unrealistic lists. Applying to a ton of reaches does not make it more likely that you will get into them. And, might actually make you less likely if spreading your efforts out means you don't put together as good an application as you might with a more focused list.[/quote]

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