Reply to New 2022-2023 Covid Plan and Guidelines

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Reply to "New 2022-2023 Covid Plan and Guidelines"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
"1 - Hasty Generalization and Post hoc ergo propter hoc.  Hasty Generalization occurs when making a claim about something without sufficient or unbiased evidence for the claim.  Post hoc ergo propter hoc occurs when someone assumes causality from an order of events.  In this case, the use of a percentage drop and likelihood of not being in high transmission by the time school starts as an indicator that no future events will occur at MCPS once unmasked students intermingle.  The generalization is whether past high transmission drops within the county correspond to transmission drops at MCPS.  However there is data that MCPS was the primary source of the January covid numbers within the county reporting dashboard and the uptick in non-MCPS numbers occurred AFTER the infections within MCPS.

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Where is the data that MCPS was the primary source of the January Covid numbers? How do you separate MCPS numbers that involved mandated/random/facilitated testing with non-MCPS numbers that primarily involved self-selected testing? Also, you're assuming causality between the uptick in non-MCPS numbers after the MCPS infections, yes? How does this align against MoCo numbers peaking during winter break and consistently dropping over the course of January and completely bottoming out in February/March? Further, where is the data in general that Covid waves are statistically influenced/driven by in-person school and not associated with the typical variant wave patterns?

Aside, your post is so entirely disingenuous as to not to be taken seriously. You're selectively ascribing post attacks to the non-masking crowd. There's a whole catalog of attacks from the other side to choose from: "Something is wrong with your household"; "It's called parenting - try it"; "I care about my kids, you do not"; "No wonder kids have mental health problems"; and on and on and on. When you show bias to this degree, it discounts or entirely invalidates everything else you're trying to communicate.[/quote]

You are confusing opinions, slurs, and expressing feelings with factual and logical errors, so I'm not sure what your point is.  What I will say is that the quantity, frequency, and overall outrageous factual and logical errors made by the non-masking crowd are really over the top.  The question you should be asking is why MCPS changed their reporting methods twice (in January / February).  Anyone hiding their data is hiding information from the parents and public-at-large.  This is how I know I should not be taking you seriously.

Where is the data that MCPS was the primary source of the January Covid numbers?

MCPS withheld reporting daily infections, choosing to only report a multi-day window and only a daily infection count on the following day only, making the analysis difficult.  However, by tracking the January daily numbers it was clear that by subtracting the counts from the Montgomery County reported numbers that the county rise appears to have coincided with a prior increase at MCPS (MCPS was the leading edge, followed by an increase in overall county numbers to by subtracting out the MCPS numbers you get the approximate adult infection rates).  The trend was that (a) families spread at Thanksgiving and December (adults seemed to surge prior than MCPS), (b) in Jan the trend seemed to reverse as kids brought it to school and other infected kids brought it home to infect other adult family members (MCPS numbers appeared to lead county increases mid-to-late Jan).

Another way to look at it is if children are unmasked sitting in a school cafeteria in the middle of Winter with infected children, for example, why would you think that environment is safe and it is not possible to spread infections?  That doesn't even hold water and was already disproven by the panic call to the national guard, so the only question is - what will happen this year?[/quote]

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