Reply to Trump tariffs: ruin U.S. economy until 2040

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Lot of talk that Trump’s policies will be good for the economy.

Interesting paper here that runs the numbers.

It’s not good.

Be interested for a Trump voter to provide detail on how the Trump policy will improve our economy.

“We find that these steps would result in lower US national income, lower employment, and higher inflation than otherwise. In some cases, economic conditions recover over time, but in others the damage continues through 2040.

And despite Trump’s “America first” rhetoric, these policies would harm the US economy more than any other in the world, particularly trade-exposed sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture. In some cases, other countries would enjoy stronger economic growth than otherwise after receiving inflows of capital leaving the United States.”

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/how-much-would-trumps-plans-deportations-tariffs-and-fed-damage-us

[/quote]

This thread has not aged well at all.[/quote]

Facts matter. Here’s what we have as of 1 December, 2025.

https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/

Key Findings

President Trump has imposed International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs on US trading partners, including China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU. In addition, he has threatened and imposed Section 232 tariffs on autos, heavy trucks, steel, aluminum, lumber, furniture, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and copper, among others.  
The Trump tariffs amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,100 in 2025 and $1,400 in 2026.
Under the tariffs imposed and scheduled as of November 1, the weighted average applied tariff rate on all imports rises to 15.8 percent, and the average effective tariff rate, reflecting behavioral responses, rises to 11.2 percent—the highest average rate since 1943.

[b]The Trump tariffs are the largest US tax increase as a percent of GDP (0.47 percent for 2025) since 1993.[/b]
Trump’s imposed tariffs will raise $2.1 trillion in revenue over the next decade on a conventional basis and reduce US GDP by 0.5 percent, all before foreign retaliation. Accounting for negative economic effects, the revenue raised by the tariffs falls to $1.6 trillion over the next decade. The Trump tariffs threaten to offset much of the economic benefits of the new tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them.

The US Supreme Court will soon decide whether the president’s emergency powers under IEEPA include the power to impose tariffs.

[b]Historical evidence and recent studies show that tariffs are taxes that raise prices and reduce available quantities of goods and services for US businesses and consumers, resulting in lower income, reduced employment, and lower economic output[/b].[/quote]

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