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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Just highlighting this for all of the "I just can't believe it" posters.

This Helo pilot is literally saying YOU CAN'T SEE THE PLANES from a helo at night in that area.

[quote=Anonymous]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aifnckN6nfM

Perspective of a military helo pilot who flew that route[/quote]

Now, we need to have a serious debate about the helos being there at all. But the helo did not suicide into this plane. [/quote]

This is not definitive.

(1) This is one guy.

(2) Just because sometimes a helicopter pilot can't see a plane in front of them on this route does not mean that the helicopters can NEVER see planes in front of them. If you listen, that's not even what this guys says. We don't know if the helicopter could see the plane or not. People are speculating.

(3) Everything this guy says would speak to the importance of staying low and to the east through that corridor. If it is truly standard that helicopter pilots flying this route simply cannot see oncoming plane traffic landing at National, then I'd expect these pilots to adhere tightly to the flight route which is designed to keep them away from oncoming planes *even if they can't see them.*

I am not one of the people speculating suicide or homicide (we have ZERO evidence of either) but I also am tired of people acting as though we know what happened just because some pilots have stated that it CAN be hard to see a plane nose-to-nose in that situation.

You are actually jumping to conclusions as aggressively as the people claiming it's definitely a suicide mission.

We don't know what happened.[/quote]

Ever heard the saying, when you hear hoofbeats, think horses not zebras? Alternatively known as Occam's Razor. I'm just a statistics sort of person. [/quote]

[b]The problem is that "the simplest explanation is probably the right one" could lead people directly to suicide. Because it's very simple -- why would a helicopter fly right into an airplane? Death wish I guess.[/b]

The explanations about visibility along that route at night complicate that kind of conclusion though. It's an alternate theory -- maybe the helicopter literally could not see the plane. Worth looking into! But is that automatically more simple or elegant an explanation? Not even a little. While pilots sometimes can't see oncoming planes, perhaps even often can't see them, it is not true that they can never see them. In fact we already have evidence that helicopters can at least sometimes see them, even at night, as we look at these other "near misses" where in some cases the helicopters shifted course to avoid collision.

The "horses not zebras" advice is designed for, for instance, ER doctors who are constantly faced with people facing life threatening symptoms and need to diagnose and treat quickly to save lives. They are trained to go for the simplest and most likely explanation because 9/10 times it will be correct and they'll save a life. Whereas if they sit around examining all possible explanations, people will die waiting.

But this is the opposite situation. People have already died. The cause is already an event that is extremely out of the ordinary -- a midair collision. We don't need to make a snap judgment about what is most likely here. We need to take our time, examine all possible explanations, and try to get it 100% right. This is not a situation where Occam's razor applies.[/quote]

This makes no sense. If you wanted to kill yourself, flying a military helicopter into a commercial airliner would be by far one of the harder ways to do it.[/quote]

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