Reply to CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]One positive note.  I've been tracking the numbers pretty closely on the worldometers.info website.  The percentage of cases designed as critical has actually been declining steeply -- it was at about 18% for a long time, and now it down to 9%.  It is probably due to increased testing, but still is somewhat encouraging.  The death percentage just crept up a bit, though -- it had been remarkably steady at 6% of resolved cases (so only about 4% of all cases, but 6% of the cases that were resolved through either death or recovery) and is not at 7%.  
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Many countries seem not to be reporting the number of critical or serious cases. USA’s number has been stagnant for days. I think that statistic is not longer close to accurate.[/quote]

That you think the statistic is not longer close to accurate is entirely your opinion. Which I can't place much weight into.

I have been watching the news very carefully and reading the reputable papers. No one (so far) is reporting a critical surge of hositalization. New York has 300+ positive people in the greater NYC region but the only hospitalization I can find a record of is the first man who came down with it three weeks ago and was in critical care. He hasn't died (yet) and it's now three weeks later. Almost all the hospitalization in Seattle are related to the one nursing home where the virus broke out.

This is very encouraging so far. All the deaths, outside the Seattle nursing home, are isolated cases here and there and not connected to a pattern (ie multiple people from the same family or same office). [/quote]

Virginia has 30 cases and 10 are hospitalized, so your dismissal of the severity appears to be very wrong. 
http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/surveillance-and-investigation/novel-coronavirus/
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Virginia does NOT have 30 cases.  They have 30 confirmed positive tests, based upon the extremely limited test criteria.  They probably have more than 100 cases.  Maybe up to 1000 cases.  They aren't even reporting on the number of cases they've done,  or even what the current lag time is.  [/quote]

I believe as much as anyone US cases are severely under-counted, but it's a bit silly to criticize use of the confirmed numbers as PP did.

Those are the only solid numbers we have and trying to use estimates based on a myriad of different assumptions just leads to confusion.[/quote]

NP here, but I think that PP has a point. People don't realize that the reported numbers aren't the real numbers. They're taking that info and saying, well, we only have X-number of confirmed cases in my county, so I think we should keep schools open, keep mass gatherings, travel, etc. These artificially low numbers are preventing us from taking the necessary measures to flatten the curve. Americans are not good at math, and half the country loves our commander-in-chief. We are royally fcked if we don't explain that confirmed case numbers fall way, way below actual numbers.[/quote]

Only 13 in Ohio have tested positive, yet governor and health officials estimate at least 100,000 people in the state actually have it. So do the math for some of the states that have 100+ positive test results. 
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487329-ohio-health-official-estimates-100000-people-in-state-have-coronavirus
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I am the person who posted the Virginia stats of 30 & 10, but what you are missing is that it was in response to the poster who said almost every case is mild, that almost no one is hospitalized in Westchester County & Seattle, etc. The point of my post was the ratio of positive cases that are hospitalized. Of course there are more cases that have not been tested, but this claim was responding to the "it's not even as bad as the flu" idiot. [/quote]

Different pp here.  Be careful jumping to conclusions about hospitalization.  People were saying that about Italy at first too.  The critical patients take about three weeks to reach that point so let’s hope for the best but it’s premature to assume low numbers of critical patient will continue.[/quote]

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