Reply to What elementary schools will Taylor be closing?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I'll take a stab at this. I'm focusing on Whitman, Churchill, WJ, Wootton, QO and RM clusters given I have more familiarity with these. However I've taken a stab at some other clusters too:

[b]WHITMAN CLUSTER:[/b] 
[u]Maybe-Less likely:[/u]
- Burning Tree ES: yes it's on CIP and has a high FCI, but the entire Whitman cluster has 340 seats available at the five elementary schools. Bradley Hills (193), Carderock (80) and Wood Acres (162) could almost fully absorb all of Burning Tree (469), however of course geography would need to be majorly changed. I'd also think it could need to involve creating a split articulation or redistricting kids from Burning Tree to a WJ ES or Seven Locks ES

[b]CHURCHILL CLUSTER:[/b] NONE

[b]WOOTTON CLUSTER:[/b] 
This cluster is interesting given there are six elementary schools and all except one were last renovated/built prior to 2000. Cold Spring (1972), Dufief (1975), Fallsmead (1974), Stone Mill (1988), Travilah (1960 major reno in 1992), and Lakewood (1968 major reno 2003). Every school has excess capacity. Seems foolish to renovate the three oldest schools given that.
[u]Very Likely:[/u]
- Cold Spring: I'd consider this almost 80-100%, I was shocked it was on the CIP given this, it's resident population is super tiny, the CES can be relocated to a diff Churchill or Wootton ES. I'd expect the resident students to be rezoned to one or more of either Beverly Farms - 181 seats available or Wayside - 170 seats available (both in Churchill cluster) or Ritchie Park - 66 seats available (RM cluster)
- Dufief ES: I think odds of this are lower than Cold Spring, but it too has a high FCI (.58), has a small enrollment (~260 students) and can be easily absorbed by two nearby schools (Stone Mill - 157 seats available and Travilah ES - 157 seats available

[b]WJ CLUSTER:[/b] NONE
[b]QO CLUSTER:[/b] NONE
[b]RM CLUSTER:[/b] NONE - however Beall and College Gardens could each absorb 150-200 students, geographically not sure from where since Ritchie Park is too far away. Twinbrook ES was removed from CIP, but has .55 FCI, just not sure where they are absorbed

[b]DAMASCUS AND CLARKSBURG CLUSTERS:[/b]
[u]Maybes:[/u]
- Clarksburg ES - built 1952 major improvement in 1993 - FCI ~.5, small school could be absorbed by Snowden Farm and Wims ES
- Woodfield ES - built 1962 last reno 1985, small school - could be absorbed by Cedar Grove & Lois P Rockwell with shifts 
[u]Less Likely but possible:[/u]
- Fox Chapel ES - built 1974 ~.5 FCI, not sure if these students could be absorbed elsewhere or not.
- Damascus ES - built 1934 last renovated in 1980 - removed from CIP ~.5 FCI 
[/quote]

In the Poolesville Cluster -  Monocacy ES - 167 students.[/quote]

Monocacy ES is unique and probably protected from closure by its extreme remoteness. It's on an agricultural reserve in the middle of nowhere, over 7 miles from the next closest elementary schools (Poolesville and Cabin Branch). It's practically in Loudoun County. And its enrollment is consistently small but it doesn't shrink. Weast tried to close it in 2012 and got shot down.

Dufief to me looks like an obvious closure, and I say that as a graduate of many years ago. Except for the Learning Center. Which is a big "except." The local neighborhood is too small to be viable and could easily be split between Stone Mill and Travilah, but the Learning Center requires at least 6 extra classrooms on its own. That's a lot of facility space. And the Learning Center placement numbers around the county are only growing, so they are not going to shut one down. That may be enough to stop a closure of Dufief.[/quote]

I think what would most likely stop a closure of DuFief is if Mod H is passed and Washingtonian Woods gets moved from Fields Road into DuFief.

If Mod H passes I think this is pretty likely, as MCPS will try to get rid of the Rosemont Island by finding a school to send current Downtown Crown to. My gut would be Fields Road because it's closest, which would then necessitate Fields Road people like Washingtonian Wood being pushed out to DuFief. Also, Stone Mill has the worst facility rating of any ES in the cluster, and will need a major capital investment soon, so I don't think they will pack it with DuFief people now. [/quote]

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