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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Rejected, but dc isn’t upset. It was not a top choice and they have much better options elsewhere for their intended major. Only applied because we’re in state.[/quote]

So UMD figured that out and protected their yield[/quote]

There’s no way UMCP can figure that out.

The reality is plenty of Marylanders can’t afford to send their high stats kids out of state and desperately want their kids to get into our flagship.

But the reality is certain kids from mcps are simply shut out.

A college counselor I know very well says UMCP is irrationally unpredictable. Pretty much sums it up. [/quote]

I'm a HS teacher and our counselors say that UMCP is the hardest school to predict.  Maybe that's an exaggeration, but they say they are surprised every year, both by the kids who they thought were strong candidates who don't even get Freshmen Connect, and the kids who get honors who they weren't sure would get in.

But the statement that there are kids who "can't afford to send their high stats kids out of state" is confusing.  My kid, who is a solid student but not good enough that applying to UMD made sense, has multiple merit offers that bring the cost of attendance below the in state COA of UMD, and that's before need based aid has been awarded.  [/quote]

I expect that the top is predictable admits (barring something like they applied RD instead of EA), and I believe the kids that really aren’t qualified at all are predictable. I expect once you get to that in between space it does become hard to predict because they do holistic review. And, I could imagine that how they do that holistic review is different at Blair than it is at another school in MCPS, and that would be different than how they apply holistic review with kids from Garrett County.

[b]I can appreciate if that large middle swath feels unpredictable but again, our Naviance pretty clearly shows that there is a top line above which almost everyone is admitted, and a bottom line below which almost nobody is admitted. The middle shows more intermingling.[/b]
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+1000.  It was obvious on Naviance/SCOIR what that line was for both my kids at their respective high schools.  They were in the unpredictable middle.  Their college counselors were clear UMD was a target/low reach. I’m biased as a parent that they were good high school students, they have high GPAs at competitive colleges, but it was clear that for UMD it could go either way.
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