Reply to Real talk about the city’s economy, federal buildings leases, and telework impacts

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The District of Columbia’s fiscal condition is facing serious headwinds and should be at the forefront of the agenda for the mayor and Council. [b]It should concern everyone that neither the mayor nor the Council seem to be lending this issue the level of seriousness it deserves.[/b]

There is a predictable budget gap that will occur when the Federal stimulus funds run out and there has yet to be any evidence that there is any planning for this eventuality. In fact it seems like the opposite, as more and more spending programs are being introduced.

It is hard not to conclude that there is some denial afoot or at the worst, negligence. DC was presented with a once-in-a-generation opportunity and it is hard not to come to the conclusion that they not only whiffed but backslided by wasting this significant Federal infusion. It’s a shame.[/quote]

The mayor most definitely is paying attention to this:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/01/20/bowser-biden-federal-workers-washington-dc-00078677

The Council, meanwhile, has decided to add an annual $42 million to the budget for free buses, plus hundreds of millions of dollars for other frivolities, because they apparently think it's still 2012. But hey, maybe we can speed-camera our way out of the problem (note: if Maryland and Virginia residents don't have to pay those tickets, and DC residents only have to pay those tickets in certain circumstances, then no, we can't speed-camera our way out of the problem). [/quote]
Did you read the article? It is well reported and balanced, but it literally points out that the mayor’s goal for 100,000 residents downtown is un-serious, calling it “far-fetched” and concludes that “banking on federal workers is probably not a long-term strategy” for the city.

My view is that the mayor needs to lead and so far she seems to be in as much denial as the Council. Making pie-in-the-sky proposals is not any more comforting than proposing and passing more and more entitlements that the mayor also signed off on.

The mayors failure to lead is also reflected in the article in urgency of the matter. It reports that the Federal government is a quarter of the workforce and a third of the office space representing at least a quarter of DC’s economy. It points out, that with low unemployment, liberal Federal government WFH policies allow it to be competitive. It points out that Bowser’s return to office proposal aligns her with Congressional Republicans and how it is inconsistent with her own WFH policies that only requires “frontline workers” to be in the office 3 days a week. It reiterates multiple times that Federal workers are hired to perform a specific job function and not serve as economic fodder for DC’s economy. It outlines the serious risks facing the city from the negative feedback loop caused by lower revenue from sales and CRE property taxes and how that can cascade to further population decline.

It’s clear that her economic development head understands all of this because much of it he is quoted as saying himself. It is not clear how much of this Bowser has truly come to grips with and the Council unfortunately is just moving forward unabated with their fingers in their ears singing la, la, la, la…[/quote]

The mayor is the #1 reason why DC is in its predicament: she doesn't champion legislation that makes DC a nicer place to live or make it easier to get around without a car. She caters to suburbanites, people who don't even live here, and drivers who drive like maniacs and put resident lives at risk.

She is absolutely obsessed with constantly positioning herself to the right of the council, so she opposes legislation that would actually benefit DC residents with the free Metrobus trips that originate in DC.

She drags her feet on expanding the protected bike lane network and lets cops and drivers block the bus lanes, rendering them almost worthless. She installed a crappy part-time bus lane on 16th St. She is dragging her feet on Conn Ave.

She lets the churches block progress. Muriel Bowser is a clown and it's going to be another long four years under her.[/quote]
Will banning cars replace 25% of DCs economy? They should do that tomorrow. [/quote]

Here's the thing.  DC's messy morning and afternoon rush hour traffic jams are back to where they were pre-pandemic.  The car commuters are back in full force.  What's not back is the metro commuters.
If downtown office buildings are to be repurposed it needs to be predicated on mass transit.  DC can't handle and doesn't need more cars.
But that said, she can't legally just wave a wand and will it so. Federal buildings are owned or leased by GSA.  In many cases there are multi-year leases which would need to be bought out or renegotiated.  In many cases, the buildings are not suitable as residences, and would need to be completely gutted and rebuilt.  But it also begs the question, residences for who, and why?  And who really benefits - the developers?  By bet is that's who. 
 Do we really need more luxury housing?  And what about dealing with crime so that people would actually want to live there?  What about fixing DC schools so that families don't flee to the burbs after elementary school?[/quote]
The Political article points to a number of impracticalities of transforming downtown into an area with 100,000 new residents, including where would the new schools be to accommodate all of these new residents.

In addition, due to the need to transition away from reliance on government jobs and towards private sector jobs, at least initially the city will need to promote itself as a haven for reverse-commuters. If the city makes it harder for people to commute out of the city in cars then that comparative advantage is gone. The Silver Line takes 1 hour from downtown to the Reston metro stop. Driving a reverse commute to that same metro stop takes 35 minutes. Then once you get to the metro stop, you still need to get to your office, wherever that may be.

The strategy is obvious. The dimwits in this city who also work from home, and there are a lot of them, are intent on preventing that from happening.

[/quote]

I live in DC, my office is downtown DC, but I telework most of the time.  Same with my wife, whose office is in NW, but she also teleworks fulltime.  Neither of us drove to work, I'd walk (2 miles), wife would take metro.  Pre-pandemic, we both usually packed our lunches, and only go out for lunch or dinner on occasion, that really hasn't changed much pre-or-post pandemic.  Our kid went to school in DC, also not a driver - now in college at GW, still doesn't need to drive.  Car only gets used on weekends for outings, shopping, visiting friends and family.  Car's been paid off for years but is in great shape with only 60k miles on it.  Our home is almost paid off, from its 15-year mortgage.  We have a big chunk of retirement savings and a healthy investment portfolio.  Life is good - and we're not 1%ers - for combined household income we'd just barely be near the top 10% https://www.investopedia.com/personal-finance/how-much-income-puts-you-top-1-5-10/.  Can't say I feel like the dimwit seeing others sitting in rush-hour traffic road rage idiocy day in and day out.  [/quote]

You established yourself in a completely different time period and area. Sounds like you bought a SFH in NW, sent your kid to established quality NW elementaries, then perhaps on to Walls. That is completely different from families buying/renting downtown and sending their kids where, to Dunbar? While I disagree with PP’s premise that we need to focus on car commuters, the city clearly would need to do a LOT more to attract families downtown. [/quote]

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