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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Will Manchin follow?
My bet is Yes[/quote]

No he won't. That won't play in WV.[/quote]

Are you sure about that?

Shortly after Manchin voted for the Inflation Reduction Act legislation, which doesn’t work to reduce inflation, his approval rating in West Virginia plummeted.

Mooney is going to run against him in 2024.[/quote]

What is the upside for Manchin of quitting the Democratic party?  I can't see one.  On the other hand, there are a lot of downsides.  Democrats might nominate someone else.  He would have to spend money to get on the ballot.  He would lose access to party funding.  He might lose votes from Democrats.[/quote]

Manchin doesn't need Democrat votes to get elected.  He barely won his last election, and might lose his next one.  Switching parties gives him a pretty good chance of getting reelected, as Republicans probably wouldn't beat him in a primary in WV.  
By threatening to quit, it shuts down all of the liberals attacking him for not giving them everything they want.  They can't take away his committee chairmanship, because he could easily switch to get Republicans back to a power sharing position, and McConnell will give him the chairmanship to do it.[/quote]

Not tethered to reality. Of course he needs the votes of Democrats to be reelected. Even you recognize this by reference to his margin in the last election. And, yes, a MAGA type easily bears him in a Republican primary. Were you not paying attention to the last two election cycles? Trumpist primary voters don’t rewRd moderates. Ask Murkowski. Not a single moderate in Ohio. Ducey wouldn’t even run in Arizona. WV is far more red. Look at the governor. Setting aside the fact Manchin already chairs the Senate Energy & Narural Resources Committee, McConnell doesn’t just hand out the gavel. Committee Chair and Ranking Member are based on seniority and Barrasso bests him. [/quote]

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