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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]https://www.salon.com/2026/01/19/some-trump-voters-are-sneaking-away/

New polling data shows that it's getting increasingly embarrassing to identify as a Republican, and some Trump voters are slinking away and pretending it never happened. [/quote]

Link to the actual analysis in the article. https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/backlash-to-trump-has-been-higher

Salon is generally garbage. [/quote]

In the first year of Donald Trump’s first term as president in 2017, the share of Americans calling themselves Republicans (or independents who leaned toward the Republican Party) dropped just 2 percentage points — from 42% in 2016 to 40% by Q4 of 2017. I predict it will surprise many people to hear that the Democrats didn’t actually change their advantage in party ID much at all in Trump’s first term, expanding their advantage to +7 in 2018 from +6 in 2016.

In Trump’s second term, however, the Republican Party is shedding members at a much higher pace. Gallup released its latest party identification data this week, and the numbers show Republican identification dropped from 46% in 2024 to just 40% in Q4 of 2025 — a 6-point decline, triple the 2-point drop during Trump’s first term.[/quote]

So a 6-point drop in 3 months v a 2-point drop in 36ish months. Clearly I'm bad at math, but not that bad to know this isn't a positive development 9 1/2 months out from the midterms. Look, there is a floor for MAGA, so this will not drop to zero, but the floor alone will not win elections. They need the folks who raise the roof and the last 12ish months have not been promising in that regard.[/quote]

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