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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]1)MV (2%)
2) Marie Reed Dual (IB) (Pretty sure thing if we are willing to wait until August)
3) Powell Dual Language (0% first round,maybe 25% if we wait until August)
4) Bancroft (0%)
5) Cleveland Dual Language (15%)
6) Ross (0%)
7) Capitol Montessori (12%)
8) DC Bilingual (?)
9) Appletree CH (Pretty sure thing if we wait until August)
10) Lee Montessori (?)

Also Lamb (12% if we wait until August), Stokes (0%), and SHIning Stars (30%)

My priorities are Spanish immersion (one or two way), followed by Montessori with adjustments for proximity and skewed perceptions of program quality.  I have also included my estimated odds of getting into each as a one shot based on fact, rumor, and innuendo.

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I have to say that I think your probabilities of getting in are way off. Shining Stars should be at 100%. The Principal said they went through the entire waitlist last year. Plus, with all the changes going on there, I think it will be a lot less desirable. LAMB I think may be 12% if you wait til September/October and only if you are willing to go to the NE location. My understanding is that the NW location has seats snagged by sibs and by those who are lucky enough to get a slot in the initial lottery. Stokes is higher too this year, since they have more spots than usual this year. Lee Montessori I'd put at 100%. Bad location for many, new school with no sibs, and Montessori--which works for some but not all kids. Marie Reed did go through its entire English only list last year, but dual language was in much higher demand, according to the principal, and he said several people got off in October. So by August, I don't think the dual language program is a sure thing.[/quote]

I fully accept that my forecasts may lack information.  In fact, this is exactly the kind of pointless discussion I was hoping to generate to sustain me through this month, for is not this the DC parent's version of March Madness, and should we not kibbitz about our brackets?

We are IB for Marie Reed, so I think our odds are pretty good for the start of school.

I will defer to your superior info on Shining Stars.  I also think your point about the LAMB campuses is well taken; the commute to that location may finish me off.  I'm not sure that it matters that Stokes has 5 or 10 more spots.  That may just move them into MV territory in terms of odds.

Lee is an interesting case.  As a previous poster indicate, it seems to be choice #12 for a lot of people. Are the people who choose Lee as #12 the same wide-eyed people who have packed choices 1-11 with MV, Two Rivers, IT etc., or are they the pragmatic realists that have dotted their applications with Appletree and a school where they have proximity preference?

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I ranked Lee in first position for pk3[/quote]

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