Reply to Trump fires commissioner of labor statistics to be fired after weak jobs figures

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[quote=Anonymous]Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman "the paranoid style in American economics."  Trump is killing the credibility of American institutions.
 
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Most economists found this report entirely credible. The BLS has a sterling reputation for careful, objective analysis, and as I said, Friday’s report brought the official estimates into line with other evidence. What about those revisions? As Jared Berstein explained in a Substack post yesterday, revisions are normal. Without getting too deep into the weeds, the BLS wants to be timely, so it issues preliminary reports based on incomplete data, then routinely revises them as more data come in. Revisions tend to be especially large around turning points; what we saw Friday is exactly what we’d expect if the economy is in fact experiencing a significant slowdown, which would show up more strongly in revised data than in the initial reports.

But Donald Trump screamed “conspiracy” and fired the head of the BLS, because of course he did:

I don’t want to spend much time debunking Trump’s claim that there was a conspiracy to make the job numbers look bad. Suffice it to say that rigging the job numbers would be a complicated process, requiring the cooperation of many people, and we’d almost surely have whistleblowers telling us that it was happening. In fact, we will know that it’s happening when, as seems highly likely, Trump’s people politicize the BLS.

And as I said, independent indicators also point to a job slowdown. For example, Automatic Data Processing, which does many companies’ payrolls, produces independent estimates of private employment. People I know who follow these things closely consider ADP’s numbers noisy and less reliable than BLS, but if BLS were rigging the numbers to hide the glories of the Trump economy, we’d expect to see that hidden Trump boom in the ADP estimates. We don’t.

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