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[quote=Anonymous]https://rollcall.com/2025/07/25/senate-ratings-midterm-elections-2026/

ANALYSIS – The 2026 election cycle began in November with a historically small universe of competitive Senate races. More than eight months later, not much has changed, and that’s good news for Republicans hoping to maintain their majority.

Since late January, seven senators have announced they’re either retiring or running for another office, and yet the Senate battleground hasn’t fundamentally changed. Even while President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has dipped from 51 percent at the beginning of his term to about 43 percent, according to G. Elliott Morris’ average, the national political environment hasn’t deteriorated enough, nor have local dynamics changed enough in individual races, to diminish Republicans’ advantage in the fight for Senate control.

The cycle started with five races rated as competitive by Inside Elections, which was the smallest initial Senate battleground going back to 1994, when The Rothenberg Political Report (Inside Elections’ predecessor) first started rating races. The number of competitive races has crept up in the past few months (all the way to eight now), but only on the periphery.

Georgia (where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is up for reelection), Michigan (which is now open because of Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ retirement) and North Carolina (which is also open because of GOP Sen. Thom Tillis’ recent announcement) were part of the initial five Battleground races. Those races are now rated as Toss-ups as Inside Elections moves from binary ratings to the traditional nine-category rating system.

Another of the initial five was Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins is the only Republican up for reelection next year in a state that backed Kamala Harris over Trump. But she’s earned the benefit of the doubt after multiple resounding victories in her blue-leaning state, so her race is now rated Tilt Republican.

New Hampshire was also on the list of initial battlegrounds and is now rated Lean Democratic.  This seat is also open because Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is not running again.

The two newest additions to the Senate battleground are Iowa and Texas. Both remain Republican states under normal circumstances, but this cycle might be extraordinary.

In Iowa, GOP incumbent Joni Ernst has had multiple sets of negative headlines this year (including after her “We all are going to die” comment), and Texas Republicans look poised to oust Sen. John Cornyn in favor of controversial state Attorney General Ken Paxton in their primary. But those races both have a long way to go, including Democrats having to decide on their nominees, so they are only rated Likely Republican, one category away from Solid. 
And finally, Minnesota, where Democrats have a modest 6.9-point Baseline advantage, was also added to the battlegrounds when Democratic-Farmer-Labor Sen. Tina Smith announced she wasn’t running again. That open-seat race is now rated Likely Democratic. [/quote]

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