Reply to Does the proposed AAP Changes mean AAP in every MS?

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Reply to "Does the proposed AAP Changes mean AAP in every MS?"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Why would FCPS predict that the enrollment at Cooper will drop from 800 to 681 over the next 5 years when the population of Great Falls and McLean are expanding?  That is nearly 20% of the current student population.   Are other MS loosing populations at this pace?  [/quote]

Because FCPS is notoriously bad at its projections!!!!  They were way off with Haycock (and many other schools I'm sure).  Look at the dashboard and you'll see projections that are downright bizarre.[/quote]

Because increases at the elementary schools which have level 4 might be showing up in the Kilmer numbers? FCPS screwed up on that sheet with the numbers to schools.  Colvin Run is a split feeder for the base school and therefore AAP.  The sheet shows all of them in the Langley Pyramid.

I just went on the FCPS boundary locator with 1432 Towlston , the Shouse Village community center, and I am correct.  FCPS screwed up.  [/quote]

The boundary locator reflects the current, correct assignments for Shouse Village.  Presumably the FCPS projections for Cooper, Kilmer and Longfellow on the capacity dashboard assume a continuation of current AAP assignments, since no changes have, in fact, yet been made.  The "numbers to schools" on the "sheet" appear to be a crude reallocation of AAP students at different elementary schools to the various high school "pyramids," without regard to whether those schools are split feeders.

I don't know whether there are "screw ups" or not in these numbers, since no one really knows at this point where FCPS will land on the MS proposals.   I do agree that FCPS enrollment projections bounce around quite a bit. Whether the Cooper and Langley enrollments will decline as much as FCPS is now projecting over the next five years remains to be seen.  The actual enrollment numbers indicate that Cooper has 29 fewer students this fall than in the fall of 2011, while Langley's enrollment declined by 66 students.    [/quote]

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