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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]"Moron" realtor here.

The high end of the market is always a [i]leading[/i] indicator. People who buy $5M houses don't buy it thinking...what's my HHI...can I afford it etc. They buy it from an asset perspective, whether it's appreciation or capital preservation in mind. If THEY are not buying, it means...they think cash is better, or there are other investments that are better. i.e. Housing is NOT a good way preserve capital.

That throws the entire inflation argument out of the water. i.e. bubblicious markets are staring down the reality hole.[/quote]

What are you seeing in that higher end of the market?[/quote]
What I'm seeing is a [b]significant[/b][i] slowdown, with properties sitting much much longer and significant price drops. We're talking 20-30% off list, if not more. This is generally the $2M+ market. (And if Jeff doesn't stop deleting my screenshots...I could show more data, but it looks like he doesn't like it. Oh well.)

I'm still seeing idiot sellers in the $1-$2M range, who:

- are too late to the market now, the bell curve has shifted.
- Should have listed last year if they wanted to make money from their house
- are thinking people will pay in July 2021, what they were paying in July 2020, which is not happening, is not going to happen.

I'm still seeing desperate sellers in the $750K-$1M market who: read above.

The under $750K market in the DC metro area is very sporadic. Some parts sell well (think Silver Spring, Burke etc) but they are very localized. Other parts (think tear downs in Arlington) just sit there until they drop the price to where it is economically feasible for a developer.
  
I'm seeing "well priced" properties still move quickly, but there is no [b]frenzy[/b] anymore.

What people don't realize is that a lot of the frenzy was NOT due to inflation, lumber prices rising (they are off 40% from their highs) and what not. That was a "transitory" (in JPOW's words) situation, which did turn out to be true. The frenzy was due to migration patterns, where a lot of people who can now WFH (and other reasons) changed their geographies and brought their incomes with them. This is why NY, NJ, IL, CT, MA, MD, DC are all stagnating, and prices rose in other parts of the country (FL, TX, NC, SC, VA and several other low COL states). But...that surge is over. Whoever needed to move, has moved. Now, we just have delusional/desperate sellers trying to make money.

Housing (residential real estate) CANNOT go up too much and will ALWAYS correct to the median, unless incomes rise proportionately. And that's not happening and may never happen. 
[/quote]

Then this board should be filled with deliriously happy buyers who've finally been able to snag their dream home at a reasonable price, with very little negotiation. Looking for that thread now. Looking... looking...[/quote]

If the DC area is “stagnating” because people who can WFH are relocating, then why was the market so crazy here the past year? Wouldn’t all the people leaving have made the market go down? I would instead guess that anyone who relocated out of here to somewhere cheaper are the ones who were already on the cusp of priced out before the pandemic and this was a tipping point. A lot of them were likely to leave in the next few years anyway. I don’t think this area has been stagnant at all.

Now can I believe there will be a slow down here? Sure. I think the price drops reflect that sellers are trying to profit off the crazy late 2020/spring 2021 comps and that people aren’t necessarily willing to pay that anymore. Prices may settle somewhat closer to pre-COVID, but I don’t think that is a bubble popping. More just the end of a spike.

I bought my house for 900k in 2019 and it would sell for closer to 1.1mil based on COVID comps. I could see it going back down some, but at this point if I listed my house for $999k there would be multiple bidders still. COVID prices will eventually be a blip, but you can’t call it a bubble just because a short spike ends and comes back to “normal.” Now if we see houses going for 2013 prices, I will call that a bubble popping.[/quote]

I just read t he post you replied to and then I read yours.  It's clear you didn't read the entire post.  That person was saying that it's [b]not[/b] a buyers market.  Point being, where are all the posts about people finding easy to purchase houses for low prices?  All we see are complaints about competition, removal of contingencies, and sky high prices.  I agree with the person you replied to, where are all the posts about the buyer's market?[/quote]

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