Reply to I think the bubble is popping.

Forum Index » Real Estate

Reply to "I think the bubble is popping."

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]"Moron" realtor here.

The high end of the market is always a [i]leading[/i] indicator. People who buy $5M houses don't buy it thinking...what's my HHI...can I afford it etc. They buy it from an asset perspective, whether it's appreciation or capital preservation in mind. If THEY are not buying, it means...they think cash is better, or there are other investments that are better. i.e. Housing is NOT a good way preserve capital.

That throws the entire inflation argument out of the water. i.e. bubblicious markets are staring down the reality hole.[/quote]

What are you seeing in that higher end of the market?[/quote]
What I'm seeing is a [b]significant[/b][i] slowdown, with properties sitting much much longer and significant price drops. We're talking 20-30% off list, if not more. This is generally the $2M+ market. (And if Jeff doesn't stop deleting my screenshots...I could show more data, but it looks like he doesn't like it. Oh well.)

I'm still seeing idiot sellers in the $1-$2M range, who:

- are too late to the market now, the bell curve has shifted.
- Should have listed last year if they wanted to make money from their house
- are thinking people will pay in July 2021, what they were paying in July 2020, which is not happening, is not going to happen.

I'm still seeing desperate sellers in the $750K-$1M market who: read above.

The under $750K market in the DC metro area is very sporadic. Some parts sell well (think Silver Spring, Burke etc) but they are very localized. Other parts (think tear downs in Arlington) just sit there until they drop the price to where it is economically feasible for a developer.
  
I'm seeing "well priced" properties still move quickly, but there is no [b]frenzy[/b] anymore.

What people don't realize is that a lot of the frenzy was NOT due to inflation, lumber prices rising (they are off 40% from their highs) and what not. That was a "transitory" (in JPOW's words) situation, which did turn out to be true. The frenzy was due to migration patterns, where a lot of people who can now WFH (and other reasons) changed their geographies and brought their incomes with them. This is why NY, NJ, IL, CT, MA, MD, DC are all stagnating, and prices rose in other parts of the country (FL, TX, NC, SC, VA and several other low COL states). But...that surge is over. Whoever needed to move, has moved. Now, we just have delusional/desperate sellers trying to make money.

Housing (residential real estate) CANNOT go up too much and will ALWAYS correct to the median, unless incomes rise proportionately. And that's not happening and may never happen. 
[/quote]

Then this board should be filled with deliriously happy buyers who've finally been able to snag their dream home at a reasonable price, with very little negotiation. Looking for that thread now. Looking... looking...[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics