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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]

Read the news. Read the housing economists and what they're saying. Check the trends. Watch the market. Read the people who have no vested interest in the news either way - they're the ones telling the truth. And the truth from where I sit? Houses are sitting longer despite the fact that most on this board are still citing bidding wars. I have contact with some 20 odd builders in the area. Every single one said sales are down. I'm in residential resale. Sales are slowing there as well and inventory is expected to rise (according to multiple sources) because rates will rise.

Doesn't matter to me. I'm not here to educate idiots and know-it-alls. Go on and buy at inflated prices. I'll pick your properties up at a steal when you have to fire-sell them in a few years like I have my others because I know what I'm doing. :)  I can't wait to laugh so hard when you guys are wrong.

And to other PP, no rent increases here because I don't rent. [/quote]

I'm the person you're imploring to get informed. Thank you, but I'm pretty well informed already. While I'm not a housing economist, I am an economist and I can and do read the literature/news quite closely. Most of my assets are in the stock market, so I follow that closely as well. (Frankly, much too closely than is needed, since everything is on auto-pilot, but I find it oddly fun to watch the swings.) Right now, everything is being driven by fed policy. Interest rates are at record lows, and the fed has committed to maintaining them for the foreseeable future. Interest rates will rise, and that will take some of the steam out of the housing market, but there are [b]literally [/b]no signs of that on the horizon. This is unfortunate because higher rates follow only from an improvement in the economy. On net, I'm not sure which way the effect goes: higher rates but improved economy can be good or bad for housing. Regardless, the effect will probably be small and is likely already priced into the market.

As for your argument that every builder said sales are down. You're confusing first derivatives and second derivatives. If this is obtuse, start with seasonally adjusted numbers first off.

The bigger issue is QE. Once the fed starts their taper, they are merely reducing the quantity of bonds they're buying each month. Even when they cut it down all the way to zero, we have created a massive behemoth of a bank (the Fed) based upon assets. Are they going to eventually unload them, or will they just sit on their big pile of Treasuries for years and years to come? I don't see how they can do the former, and I don't know what the latter implies. 
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