Reply to Has the Bayesian yacht sinking been discussed?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Some of you have never had any human factors education, and it shows.[/quote]

What does this mean? [/quote]

It means that if a $50 million yacht sinks because a crew member doesn't close a hath, the design is shoddy. [/quote]

Oh yea, I see that. I was trying to make that point earlier but not expressing it clearly. I’m sure there are things the crew did or didn’t do that weren’t perfect, but you’d think a $40m blue water yacht designed to cross oceans could handle a weather event like this at port and not capsize and sink in 6 minutes. Seems like something’s not right in the design if it provides for zero human error. [/quote]

That's not typically how complex systems fail. Complex systems invariably operate in a partially  failed state because the built-in redundancy allows operation in a failed state. Eventually, the small failures accumulate and become a catastrophic failure.

https://how.complexsystems.fail/[/quote]

Examples? Like the 787 max? [/quote]

Yes, that's an example. As I recall, due to the new engine's location, the 787MAX has a slight tendency to climb that varies based on thrust. Boeing added automatic flight trim control software to avoid pilot retraining/recertification. However, that software relied on readings from a single sensor and didn't have any limits to the amount of trim it could demand. The US airlines never suffered a catastrophic failure with a 787MAX because US pilots knew to disable the flight trim control software when the plane started to act "funny." However, if you have pilots that don't understand or even know about the software trim control, those three more minor failures will result in a catastrophic failure. If any of those three systems is working correctly, nothing goes wrong. [/quote]

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