Reply to SAT/ACT single most predictive factor at Yale

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator. [/quote]

Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd

https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.
[/quote]

They’re both reporting on the same study.  This study looked at ~17k kids who went to 4-year colleges.  These 17k kids had an average ACT of 20 and a 2.7 HS GPA.  They binned everyone with a 30+ ACT into the same bin, and there weren’t many students at any of the extremes. I also didn’t see anything in the paper that talked about statistical significance of the results, or error bars. They also didn’t look at major for the students.  While this isn’t a worthless result, it’s a very small and underpowered study compared to some of the studies with millions of students, their actual GPSs and majors at the schools they went to vs. “percentage graduating in 6 years” like this study.[/quote]

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