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[quote=Anonymous]This is my assessment as someone associated with one of the campaigns.

What happens at the end is a complete toss up. There are about equal amounts of provisional and mail-in ballots to count.

Provisionals are thought to support Blair, because of R-to-D switches. However, commuted Rs to Ds have been chomping at the bit to vote for Blair, and may likely have re-registered long enough ago to avoid provisional ballots. So we don’t really know. I would say slight Blair advantage.

Mail-ins: slight Elrich advantage, but it depends on which precincts remain. If yesterday’s count rounds out all the downcounty ballots, then Elrich is done. If downcounty ballots remain, especially those sent in earlier since ballots were absolutely NOT counted in order received, then Elrich will gain.

Whoever sees more gains in the ballots considered to be to their advantage will win. A recount is HIGHLY likely, but there is more likely a non-recount Blair win than a non-recount Elrich wins. A scenario where Blair wins outright is that provisionals are actually a whole lot of Rs to Ds, especially if the remaining mail-ins are upcounty precincts and later mailed ballots. I don’t see any scenario in which Elrich takes a strong lead and keeps it.

Assessment: slight, very slight Blair edge, but neither should be sleeping easily. I would breathe easier if I were Elrich, since his options are victory or retirement. If Blair wins, he’s got a lot of work to do, and if he loses, it’s a rough embarrassment to lose by a hair, twice. [/quote]

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