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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Beto is not done because there is a long way to the election.  But this will play only to his base which in Texas is 25% of the vote.  The middle in Texas is about 30%.  That group leans right center.  This will not play with them.  This was a bad day for Beto.   But other events may turn the tide.  If I were running against him in Texas I would wait until September and go up with an ad that has Beto crashing in and the mayor saying this was no place for this conduct and Texas deserves better.  [/quote]

Great because then Beto could run an ad with Abbott saying Texas deserves better and O'Rourke says, "I agree and here I am."[/quote]

The mayor would be saying that about Beto --- kinda does not work in reverse except for the base.   This election in Texas is a fight for the middle.  The middle is further right than the middle other places.  Gun rights in Texas extend well into democrats as well.  If I were advising Beto I would have told him to wait for the funerals to be over and deliver a major address that outlined sensible gun control for Texas.  That could have made some inroads int he middle.  This stunt will not.[/quote]

I guess you felt it was too soon?[/quote]

Politics have rules.  One is you can’t as the non incumbent do anything political before funerals at the place where stuff happened.   You can go somewhere else or you can wait.  Incumbents can go and do stuff like Abbott was doing.  Not fair but that is what the public accepts.  Has not changed since 1900.   Remember Beto has to convince center right independents to vote for him.  They are the ones that follow the rules.  An activist on the left or right says screw the rules.  Their base loves it.  The center never does.   [/quote]

DP. I understand what you're saying.  I grew up in Texas and I don't think Beto has a chance.  Or I didn't.

Like most lawyers (and most on DCUM), I'm a conservative person in the classical sense and I understand what you mean about rules and appropriateness and what incumbents/leaders do as opposed to challengers.  But Robb Elementary School is grade school kids.  It's not politics or appropriateness or respect before a funeral.  It's 19 dead children.  [/quote]
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And Abbott was bold faced lying for political gain. Here the Republicans (“MoDeRaTeS”) go again trying to enforce rules differently for Democrats. Beto was telling the truth. [/quote]

PP here.  Fine disagree with me.  We will see what happens.  Just offering my perspective.   Only push back is that elections and politics have not changed.  You may think they have but the have not.  [b]National elections and issues like gun control are all about convincing a small slice of the population to either move or care.  Nothing Beto did was for either.  He is playing to his base.  They like it.  But they are not the deciders.  Move someone who believes in gun rights a little or moderately.  That is how change happens.[/b]  [/quote]

I am the PP who said that I understand what you're saying.  Beto's "stunt" won't move any needle, I agree with you about that.  I don't think it will sink him, like you're saying, though.

But Beto isn't the issue - the murdered children are the issue.  Beto won't move any needle.  But Robb Elementary School may.[/quote]

If the needle does not move he is 10 plus points down.  That is my point.  We already know from Sandy Hook that this will not move gun rights supporters.  The middle will go for some issues: increased spending on mental health, increased school security and infrastructure, issues like background checks, waiting periods, high capacity magazines.   There are likely some others as well like ending gun shows. But those people are not moving on broader issues.   [/quote]

Oh, are we just talking about Beto? Or are we talking about all of those some issues and broader issues?

All of the posts about Sandy Hook, saying the conversation is already over.  The past doesn't control the future.  The conversation is starting.[/quote]
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I don’t have high hopes because Republican voters - yes, even you MoDeRaTeS - are blood thirsty monsters who need to be sated by the blood of innocents, but this one hits different for some reason. Maybe because of the cruelty of the police officers who failed to do their job. Maybe because sometimes there’s just one too many hits. Maybe because it comes on the heap of Republicans being general wastes of space.[/quote]

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