Reply to Mayor Bowser to Make Education Policy and Personnel Announcement

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=jsteele]With regard to the concern expressed in some posts that todays "tweaks" will undermine MacFarland and Roosevelt, here is my view. The changes announced today might actually help those schools:

1. Today's changes probably won't change the number of neighborhood children attending Deal and Wilson, but they also won't reduce the number that would have potentially gone to MacFarland or Wilson. The previous boundary changes had caused something close to panic in Crestwood (I can't speak for 16th Street Heights, but I would not be surprised if it was true there as well). In that atmosphere, few were willing to hear arguments in favor of MacFarland or Roosevelt. Just about everyone was thinking of a way to avoid being forced into them, whether that be by moving, going private, getting into Deal/Wilson feeders, or charters. So, the analysis that there are currently X number of kids that go to Deal and Wilson and, therefore, today's changes mean X less for MacFarland and Roosevelt is incorrect. Not many were likely to go to MacFarland or Roosevelt.

2) The previous changes would have reduced interest in the neighborhood among those interested in DCPS. The improvements at Powell and West had just started attracting new residents (whereas Deal and Wilson have always attracted residents). However, uncertainty about the middle and high schools could reduce the attractiveness of West and Powell and made Crestwood less popular among those interested in DCPS. So, today's changes will likely attract new residents committed to DCPS from pre-K through 12.

3) The safety valve of Deal and Wilson will allow residents -- especially those with younger children -- to look at MacFarland and Roosevelt more objectively. Residents may be more willing to get involved with or seriously consider those schools knowing that they have good fallback options. To the extent that the Deal/Wilson grandfathering helps attract families that are also interested in West or Powell, those families will be incentivized to remain a part of those communities at MacFarland and, later, Roosevelt.

The bottom line is that DCPS could not force people with options to attend schools against their will. As a result, few neighborhood residents were ever going to attend MacFarland/Roosevelt prior to 2022 in any case. Now that they are not being forced, some residents will consider the options as a choice. This evaluation will occur in a much more positive atmosphere. To the extent that Crestwood and 16th Street Heights contribute to overcrowding at Deal/Wilson, that is simply further encouragement to consider MacFarland and Roosevelt.[/quote]
Jeff, I appreciate your thoughtful comments.  I don't really agree with your underlying point though.  In essence, you seem to be saying that just about everyone from the Crestwood/16thSH area would have refused to attend MacFarland/Roosevelt out sheer rage after having lost access to Deal/Wilson.  In effect, you're saying they're like the frustrated voters from 2004 who threaten to run away to Canada rather than live under the oppressive yoke of the the Bush dictatorship.  I think that's unrealistic exaggeration, for the same reason I thought it was an exaggeration 2004.  People get mad and threaten to leave, and some do actually leave, but most will stay and muddle through because they lack options or inertia is just to strong.  It's those that stay who would form the strong core of MacFarland/Roosevelt.

You suggest that if families can choose either Deal/Wilson or MacFarland/Roosevelt, they will somehow start to embrace MacFarland/Roosevelt.  I think that's unrealistic.  If given the choice, I cannot imagine anyone leaving the safe choice of Deal to take a chance on MacFarland.  I fear that almost everyone with actual choice will choose Deal.  The families who choose MacFarland are more likely to be those with particularly complex circumstances where school proximity is paramount.  I predict the highest SES families, and the families most motivated by education (two similar, but not identical, groups), will arrange to choose Deal.  As a result, MacFarland/Roosevelt will look less attractive and will spiral downward.  I am perhaps a cynic, but I consider my pessimistic view more realistic here.

IMHO, few political leaders will make the right choice when it's a hard one that's personally damaging to them.  Vincent Gray was in the rare position to make a hard - but right - choice without much damage, and I applaud him for doing it.  Here, I fear Mayor Bowser took the easy path that helps her political position, but hurts DCPS as a whole.[/quote]

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