Reply to What is your "magic number" for retirement?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]People here sounds awfully sure of their future returns.

I'm in my late 50s and while I've studied the stagflation of the 1970s, I lived through the lost decade from 99-09 when stocks went nowhere, I think they lost 1% per year on average. So many investing statements that just were flat to down, month after month, year after year.

The idea that we might have another 10 years of no gains seems foreign no, but it shouldn't. Surely in the next 50 years it will happen.

Which is fine and healthy. But a lot of people here are saying things like, "I'm in the my 40s with 750k now which should be 4mm in my 60s".  And I'm thinking, well .. maybe.  [/quote]
Lost decade maybe for those retiring. Everyone else was able to pick stocks up left and right at great prices.Buy on the way down, not up.[/quote]

Not really.. A lumpsum 100K investment beginning of '99 would have become $109K at the end of 2009. The same $ invested in equal monthly installments would have become $97,937.82. Source: https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1999?amount=100000&endYear=2009[/quote]

That same $100,000 is worth close to $650,000 today.

[url=https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=7aA6IGC6w2Ye38nJP65ouW]Portfolio Visualizer[/url][/quote]

Sure. But my point is that a retiree will have the 100K to invest at the beginning of 1999. A young employee will have a job that allows them to invest money each month into the market that totals to 100K over the 10 year period. Left untouched, the retiree comes out ahead.  If the retiree had structured their portfolio and life so that the equivalent of a 2% withdrawal comes from guaranteed income sources (pensions, SS, etc.) and limits withdrawals to 1%, they would be close to the same level of return as an employee contributing monthly, maybe slightly less.

Agree with the sentiment that it's hard to accumulate that amount and properly structure such withdrawals.
[/quote]

PP. I understand what you’re saying.

You may like [url=https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=237334] this thread[/url] on Bogleheads that discusses this. I found it a good read. [/quote]

Thank you for the link. I love bogleheads. We are getting close to retiring so I find that I am looking at everything differently than when we were just in jobs/income time period.[/quote]

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