Reply to Did TJ release the stats of admission by middle school?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]It's interesting that the applications to TJ seem to be essentially flat after the change in admissions policy. If I recall correctly, the number of applications rose for the Class of 2025 (though still lower than in some prior years before the admissions change), then dipped significantly for the Class of 2026 and was essentially flat for the Class of 2027.

Given that (1) the admissions change allegedly increased &quot;access&quot; to TJ for students who didn't have access because the &quot;old&quot; system was skewed in favor of wealthier kids and (2) the class sizes were expanded from roughly 470 to 550, one would have expected to see a sustained, sizable increase in applications.  The fact that this hasn't happened suggests that whatever increase in &quot;access&quot; may have occurred is being offset by a decrease in interest among students and families who now perceive that TJ is less prestigious or no longer appreciates what they bring to the table.

I know some who post here are fine with that, but it underscores that the changes may be leading to unintended consequences - at least if FCPS really wanted to continue to hold out TJ as some type of &quot;flagship&quot; (as opposed to simply a specialized curriculum, like a language immersion program).  [/quote]

calling asian american students as wealthy kids is BS, and racist.

The unusual rise in applicants, among minority racial groups except asian americans, was not due to elimination of application fee, but a desperate move by FCPS to capitalize on the momentum generated by the George Floyd movement. There isn't any genuine upsurge in STEM interest among these applicant groups; rather, it seems to be a calculated effort to diversify the applicant pool with non-Asian applicants, possibly in anticipation of the backlash expected from the forceful reduction of Asian American applicants from 73% to 54%. Of course, application fee was never a problem as can be seen from the number of applicants before and after its removal. No one was stopping non-asian applicants from applying to TJ, except for the lack of stem interest due to lack of FCPS honor classes at bottom 10 middle schools that would help students prepare for TJ rigor.

TJ Applicants / Enrollment year
========================
2,766 2019-20
2,539 2020-21
3,034 2021-22 &lt;== artificially induced surge & switch to essay based admission
2,544 2022-23
2,548 2023-24 [/quote]

Go back to the Class of 2017 and there were over 3100 applicants.  So over the past decade there's been a pronounced decline in interest in TJ, despite the steps purportedly intended to make TJ more attractive to a wider pool of applicants.  Of course, there are more applicants than seats, but it's certainly not a place on the upswing. [/quote]

There are fewer kids in Fairfax and Nova now than pre-pandemic.  Some have moved to private and some have moved to homeschool but some have moved away entirely.  I wonder if it is enough to have this effect?[/quote]

As of end of last school year, FCPS enrollment was down about 4% from their pre-pandemic peak (was down 5% initially in Sep 2020, but had added 1% back since, haven't seen 2023 school year enrollment numbers yet to know if it's continued to rebound)

Of course, the percentages could be disproportionately higher (or lower) amongst the prospective TJ candidate pool compared to the system-wide numbers.[/quote]

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