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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]For those who don't like the date of April, 2020, here's another article from infectious disease specialists from July, 2021:

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-07-14/why-covid-19-screening-should-be-used-sparingly-in-schools

Why We Shouldn’t Blindly Screen Students for COVID-19 This Fall
When case rates are low, the majority – and sometimes even the vast majority – of positive test results are false-positives.

The DESE testing program and others across the state and across the country have shown us that the probability of COVID-19 in asymptomatic students attending in-person learning was consistently low – less than 0.5% – even before widespread vaccination. [b]Using 0.5 as a (very) generous overestimate and a close-to-perfect (99% specific) diagnostic test, that means for every one true positive test, three will be false-positive. [/b]The true specificity of some polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests is probably closer to 95% (in other words, still very good, but not quite so close to perfect). This more realistic estimate increases the proportion of false-positives test results even more – [b]up to 14 false-positives for every real case of COVID-19 identified by the screening program. [/b]As case rates continue to decline, the ratio of real cases to false-positives only gets worse (and worse). Assuming a rate of 1 in 1,000 or 0.1% and a nearly perfect test, there are 14 false-positive tests for every real case found by a screening testing program, and 71 if we use the more realistic estimate of 95% specificity.
[/quote]

Thank you for posting this article.[/quote]

That article is pre-Delta and describes an environment of declining case rates.[/quote]

And the April 2020 one (cited previously and panned as being from April 2020) has rates that were higher than now and makes the same point.

Try to look at the actual numbers instead of just saying “but delta” or even “substantial spread.”[/quote]

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