Reply to Best Post I’ve Seen in a Month on DL/Hybrid Choice

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous] This post going viral is a beautiful case study in the way misinformation spreads.  This guy, grabs the number .0016 from the internet NOT understanding it is actually .0016 PERCENT.  It is 3.02 kids, not 302.  And that’s assuming all 189,000 students test positive.  It’s really a fatality rate of less than one kid.

As soon as I got to the 3rd paragraph I knew his math had to be wrong bc if kids are not dropping dead all over the country.  I’m very disturbed how many of my friends believed this number and shared this on social media.

And if you say 1 kid dying is still too much, you better rethink leaving your house bc life is full of risks all day.  [/quote]

Great point.  There are also some pretty significant issues with this statement:

[quote]“Teachers have a greater chance to being killed by a car than they do of dying from COVID.”

(Eye roll) Per the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS), the U.S. see approximately 36,000 auto fatalities a year. Again, there have been 133,420 COVID deaths in the United States through 12:09 July 10, 2020. So no, they do not have a great chance of being killed in a car accident.[/quote]

The overwhelming majority of COVID deaths occur among those who over 65, so most of that 133,420 were well past teaching age.  Looking at the chart below, only around 19% of all COVID deaths were among persons age 25-64, so the applicable number here would be closer to 25,000--most of them 55+.

[img]https://www.acsh.org/sites/default/files/coronavirus%20covid%20mortality%20us%20by%20age.png[/img]

In 2018, the total number of driver-involved motor vehicle fatalities among adults ages 25-64 was 33,972 ([url]https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/query[/url]).  Cut that number in half--16,986--to make it roughly comparable to the number of US COVID deaths through July 10.

Among those 16,986 motor vehicle fatalities here's the breakdown by age:

[u]55-64[/u]: 3,630.5
[u]45-54[/u]: 3,931.5
[u]35-44[/u]: 4,055
[u]25-34[/u]: 5,369

Among the 133,420 COVID deaths in the first half of 2020:

[u]55-64[/u]: 15,889
[u]45-54[/u]: 6,424
[u]35-44[/u]: 2,297
[u]25-34[/u]: 902

So among those ages 45 and up, there were indeed more COVID fatalities than motor vehicle fatalities, but among those age 25-44, there are more who die in car accidents.

[/quote]

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