Reply to 3 Cases of Coronavirus Confirmed in MD

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I'm in Southern California where we are surrounded by CV - and I refuse to change how I go about my day.

Relax people! stop feeding the hysteria! [/quote]

Well, I have a 92 year old grandma with lung disease and parents in their 60s, one of whom has underlying health problems, so yeah — I’m somewhat concerned.

There are estimates that 40% of the population could get it. With a 3 percent fatality rate, that’s roughly 4 million deaths in the USA.[/quote]

The 3 percent fatality rate is a gross overestimate. They are so many mild cases of the virus that are not diagnosed.[/quote]

Yes and no. I also think this is overestimate but here is now yes and how no:

Why yes:
If you consider the statistic, that is exactly what they say, they calculate all cases everywhere and they just run it against the death cases and there you are. So that is that.

Why no:
1. Because every person runs into different risks. Therefore general one size fits all death rate does not give the person an idea what their risks are.

2. Death rate should tell you your survival chances and it usually does when you have one disease that treats pretty much everyone the same way. This one does not. It affects people in different way.

3. As per above, death rates affects differently depending on:
a) age group you are in
b) preexisting conditions if you have any... hypertensions, lung problems aka asthma, scarring.. other cold or flu like sickness while you catch the corona virus on the top of them.. cancer.. also any cardiovascular situations make it bad as they lower your survival rate by much more then the death rate would indicate.
c) if  you smoke
d) if you are a male
e) if you live in a country with poor sanitation
f)  if you live in a country with poor health care system
g) if you live in a country with overloaded health care system and even if you could be well under normal conditions you can expire waiting for a hospital bed or ventilator
h) if you are young and strong,  young and sick or old and strong or old and sick..
I) if you are under a lot of regular stress you might expire without any additional health conditions, see the case of the doctor of psychiatry who had nothing as far as the health issues but was stressed and tried and he did not make it pass few days.

So death rate means very little. Here we have tons of people on meds. Each of them must have something either emotional or mental or physical issues and they all affect the survival rate that gets cut with each other factor that applies to a person.

Imagine your neighbor 65, father of 4, hypertension, on meds, smoked half of his life...

Now calculate: Being over 65 puts him in much greater risks group then if he were younger, having a hypertension puts him in a great risk group, having smoked even if only in the past, his lungs are less then stellar as the smoke always damages lungs to a degree, having kids.. probably stressful work.. that added stress. And now you have a case that you really should take seriously and worry about exposure.
Because when your kid and your coworker that runs marathon or goes to the gym daily will shake it of like it was a bowl of cheerios, the next guy might not make it. So it is not something that however light should be taken lightly because it is like with mosquitos, Nobody runs from them in panic but  if they bite you there is a chance of getting deadly disease. So no, not everybody gets it but in theory everybody can get it. If it is you.. then pray.

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