Reply to So how many IB are going to really be at Hardy?

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[quote=Anonymous]People are really using the statistics here to tell the story they want to hear.  I am actually very impressed by these numbers and here is why:

First the reported number is 15% "in-boundary based on where the student lives" not just feeder school.  Now there is certainly another whole argument to be made regarding the inference that IB is better than OB students.  I for one don't think it is a predictor of the quality of the students but to forgo that argument lets just say it is about creating a "neighborhood school" more IB kids helps to create this environment.

Lets look at the facts:

If the IB students were equally distributed amongst the grades (which anyone that has actually visited the school can tell you it is HEAVILY weighted toward 6th grade) and the grades were equal size there would be approximately 19 IB students in each grade.

The CY population of 5th graders at all four feeder schools is 108 students (excluding Eaton as it has feeder rights to Deal currently).  Since I don't have last years numbers, which the 15% is based on, I will use the CY numbers (although LY 5th grade population was much less).  This means 17.7% of the total population of feeder school 5th graders choose Hardy if they all had IB addresses for Hardy.  Since we know for instance Hyde-Addison has only a 41% IB population you could certainly make the assumption that the actual % of the 5th grade feeder school population choosing Hardy is much higher than 17.7%.  Since we don't know the number though lets continue with the 17.7% figure

Now the CY 4th grade population at the four feeder schools is 212 (again excluding Eaton).  Each feeder school is adding a 5th grade class to accommodate this increase.  If the same % of the 5th grade feeder school population goes to hardy you now have a 6th grade class with 38 kids.  Now when you add Eaton to the mix, which currently has a 5th grade population of 70 students,  without changing the percentage or population in the other feeder schools you have a 50 student IB population.

When you take this into account and the fact that the IB Composition changes each time the classed move up through the school.  I think Hardy has a VERY STRONG future.  As number of IB students choosing Hardy increase the % adoption rate of 5th graders choosing Hardy will move up substantially so this is very conservative.

I am excited for Hardy and believe in 2 - 3 years it will be the premier middle school in DC.[/quote]

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