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[quote=Anonymous]Here's a nice, simple way to visualize some basic statistics:

Imagine you have a bag that contains 99 white marbles and 1 black marble. You get one chance to (blindly) pull a marble out of the bag. What are your odds of pulling the black marble on your one try? [b]1 in 100[/b].

Now imagine that you get to pull a marble out of the bag 12 times, but each time the bag is reset to 100 marbles. At first glance it may seem like it makes sense that you have a better chance of pulling the black marble if you get 12 tries. However, during each of those 12 tries, there are still 100 marbles, [b]so each draw is still a 1 in 100 chance of pulling the black marble[/b]. Get it?

Another simplified scenario is coin flips. You flip a coin 1 time and there is a 50/50 chance of heads or tails. Let's say you flip the coin 11 times and get heads each time. What is the chance of you getting tails on the 12th flip? It's still 50% despite the 11 previous heads. The outcome doesn't change based on the earlier coin flips.[/quote]

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