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Reply to "Harris beating Trump in Iowa"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Nate Silver breaks down Selzer poll. The poll has a reasonable sample size: 808 likely voters. [b]Still, the margin of error for the difference separating the candidates in a poll of that size is ±6.6 points. That means in theory, in 95 out of 100 cases, the “real” number should be somewhere between Trump +3.4 and Harris +9.6 if Selzer had surveyed every single Iowa voter instead of just an 808-person sample.[/b] [twitter]https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1852869064474968073[/twitter][/quote] Nate is wrong, dead wrong. He’s also on Peter Thiels payroll and has a gambling addiction. Seltzer has a stellar record going back years using the same methodology. What she found was older, rural women are furious about Dobbs. This are the voters who are being undercounted. I’m not saying Harris wins Iowa, but this bodes will for WI, MI, and PA. It also means any state where abortion is on the ballot is a toss up. Trump is cooked. [/quote]
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