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[quote=Anonymous]I do still believe Russia is on the road to anarchy within two'ish years.  However, it won't be because of Prigozhin.

"The Finance Ministry stopped disclosure of high-frequency outlays on its electronic budget portal that previously showed up-to-date information about spending on different categories."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-covers-key-budget-spending-133314811.html

"a former adviser at Russia's central bank, told NPR last week that many educated and skilled workers have fled the country"
"Russian firms are scaling back or shutting down, she said, citing a recent estimate that 1.3 million young workers left the labor force last year alone."
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-massive-brain-drain-workforce-shortage-ukraine-war-sanctions-2023-6

To compensate, the Russian government turned to the Chinese government to temporarily prop up the Russian economy.

"The yuanization of Russia’s foreign trade continues. In April, the Chinese currency was used for a record 23 percent of exports and 31 percent of imports, while the ruble accounted for 38 percent and 28 percent, respectively. So Russia already pays more for imports in yuan than it does in rubles."
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90001

Image:
https://i.insider.com/6437faf05f081b0019c0f8f0?width=1200&format=jpeg&auto=webp

And the Russian government is acutely aware of its economic dependence on China's goodwill.

"Russia’s Academy of Sciences (RAS) has opened a research center specializing in the study of Chinese President Xi Jinping's communist teachings"
“We need to know and analyze Xi Jinping’s ideas very closely because China today is our main strategic and economic partner,” 
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/22/russia-opens-first-xi-jinping-research-center-outside-chinaside-china-a81589

This a familiar pattern (with India), isn't it?  But remember that half of the industrial cities were already borderline with social unrest and a good portion of laborers are now fighting in Ukraine versus contributing towards the Russian economy.

"The head of Russia's federal crime agency on Saturday suggested that key sectors of the economy should be returned to state ownership to support Moscow's war in Ukraine."
"We are essentially talking about economic security in a war," Alexander Bastrykin, head of the Investigative Committee, told a conference that was streamed online. "Let's go along the path of nationalizing the main sectors of our economy."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/head-russias-crime-agency-suggests-153238532.html

Of the 75 million who are employed, 39 percent work in the state sector and state corporations of Russia and 49 percent are employed in the private sector. However, as noted by political scientist Pavel Luzin, many enterprises that are technically private or mixed sector are de facto under state control. This includes major employers such as the oil company Rosneft or the country’s largest bank, Sberbank, which means that the actual share of the state sector should be closer to 50 percent.  Even the Russian Central Bank Governor, considered by many to be a liberal technocrat and the least likely person to advocate for a Soviet economy, seems to be in agreement.

“The temptation to manage economic restructuring can lead to [a situation] where we suppress private initiative [by businesses], not to mention the risk of restoring a planned economy,”
“It seems that this is impossible since we have a market economy,” she said. “But in fact, all that’s needed is for the state to take upon itself the responsibility of deciding which industries and projects require development, and where to direct financial resources.” 
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/15/russia-risks-return-to-planned-economy-central-bank-a81518

https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-economic-forum-st-petersburg-ukraine-60bdb0815be2c5f3e393cd6d9f347ab6

So how does Putin, a ruthless former KGB spy, deal with this economic and social crisis?

“Nuclear weapons are created to ensure our security in the broadest sense of the word and the existence of the Russian state. But we, firstly, do not have such a need,” Putin said.  But he added: “Extreme means may be used if there is a threat to Russia’s statehood. In this case, we will certainly use all the forces and means that the Russian state has at its disposal.”
https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-economic-forum-st-petersburg-ukraine-60bdb0815be2c5f3e393cd6d9f347ab6

“Already about half of the units and formations of the Strategic Missile Forces are equipped with the latest Yars systems, and the troops are being re-equipped with modern missile systems with the Avangard hypersonic warhead,” Mr Putin said. The first Sarmat launchers will be put on combat duty “in the near future”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-putin-nuclear-weapons-latest-b2361298.html

"Russian agents reportedly attempted to assassinate a CIA informant on American soil in 2020"
"Their target was a former Russian agent whose defection to the United States led to a counterintelligence investigation that resulted in the capture and expulsion of nearly a dozen spies embedded along the US eastern seaboard."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/russia-assassination-attempt-cia-miami-b2360352.html

And apparently the Kremlin and rest of the liberal technocrats now realize exactly what situation they're in?

Quote from Russia’s former Minister of Economy: “It’s not that we’re in the sh*t, it’s that we’ve decided to settle down in it.”
"comment triggered some nervous laughter from the audience, the video shows. One person even applauded"
https://theins.ru/en/news/261771

"Senior Russian government members are turning up to meetings drunk as they down vodka, cognac and wine throughout the day"
"The Kremlin has doubled its wine allowance for Russian officials"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/18/kremlin-officials-vodka-alcohol-ukraine-russia-war-stress/

And this (combined with the shrinking Russian demographics, local unrest, cultural divides between Russians and Russia's ethnic minorities, alienation of the siloviki, etc.) is why I still believe Russia is on-track towards anarchy within 2'ish years; even if they 'win' in Ukraine (although with the death and destruction that has already occurred, there is no 'winner' in the War in Ukraine).[/quote]

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