Reply to When is the Delta variant supposed to hit?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]My company has an in-person conference in New Orleans around Halloween.  If you had to predict, do you think it will happen?[/quote]

There will be a large increase of cases through the summer.

We can't tell yet how much that will translate into increases in hospitalizations, deaths, or long-covid, in the various populations such as vacc'ed high-risk seniors, unvacc'ed YOLO young adults, unvacc'ed 'too hot for masks' children, vacc'ed 'time to move on' healthy adults.

We can't tell whether delta itself is more severe, or just vastly more transmissible. There no longer are households of '1 got it, the others didn't' and there are anecdotes of outdoor transmissions (sports in the UK) and fleeting contact transmissions (the mall, in Australia). You can't demand an official report on this stuff, because it's too new. This is what we got.

Hospitalizations increases are behind cases increases by 3+ weeks. Vaccinating half the population has probably changed that timeline, but it has also changed testing practices, even in the symptomatic. [/quote]

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