Reply to Will Montgomery County ever recover?

Forum Index » Real Estate

Reply to "Will Montgomery County ever recover?"

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote]Anonymous wrote:

There are more people who live in Maryland and work in VA, than those that do the reverse. Based on most recent census data in 2009-2013 time frame, approximately 68,500 people who lived in Virginia work in Maryland. Conversely, approximately 122,700 people who lived in Maryland work in Virginia. You guys can download and look at the raw data yourself:

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dem...commuting/commuting-flows.html

It's very clear that VA does a better job at providing people with, err, jobs, than Maryland.

Agreed, and I suspect in the 10 years since that census was taken, a lot of people have decided to locate or relocate to NoVA, driving up housing prices there compared to MD. It's rational to assume that if one area is creating a lot more jobs than another one, this will have a short-term effect of a lot of people commuting there, and a longer-term effect of people locating there and therefore driving up housing costs relative to other nearby areas. [/quote]

This X100. I think this is the #1 reason why there is such a stark difference between Montgomery County appreciation and NOVA appreciation. Higher paying jobs are being concentrated in NOVA. This starts a snowball effect with wealthier, high income people moving to NOVA and newcomers choosing NOVA over MoCo. MoCo loses both revenue from not having any jobs or business and losing the high income residents. This makes the area more affordable but less attractive so prices fall further. Poverty increases because there are more options for low income housing and programs. The schools suffer as they lose more highly educated people. Eventually taxes will need to go up spooking away other buyers or tipping the scales for more wealthy people leaving the county. Buyers see the huge differences in appreciation and worry about investing in Montgomery County.

[/quote]

Some of the fundamentals are really stark:

[img]https://i.ibb.co/G9qdTDL/moco-vs-fairfax.png[/img]

So Fairfax has about 10% more people and 10% more businesses with employees, but the businesses with employees in Fairfax generate 38% more employment and 66% higher payroll than the businesses in Montgomery County. So not only are the businesses in Fairfax County employing far more people on average, but the jobs are significantly higher paying. And year over year Fairfax is enjoying 1.3% employment growth versus 0.2% for MoCo. This does not even take into account the business/employment in Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, and Fairfax City. Here's the underlying raw data for people that want to see for themselves:

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/montgomerycountymaryland,fairfaxcountyvirginia,US/PST045218

Face it, Virginia is providing substantial employment opportunities to Marylanders, MoCo should be thanking their lucky stars for their proximity to NoVA. [/quote]

NP here. Seriously. To the point, that PP is finding and posting tables on this thread to prove a point. Do you all work? LOL![/quote]

PP here. I am an owner of one of the "employer establishments" in Fairfax County. I do work, but set my own schedule.  [/quote]

So business owner, what's it to you? Why must you go out of your way to attempt to "prove" that VA is so much better than MD? Do you have nothing else better to do? Good grief. [/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics