Reply to A thread of optimism: why do you think Trump will win in 2020?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I posted this in the other optimist thread.

k it’s a coin toss. Just as there are many people not talking about Trump that will vote for him, there are many people who will come out in droves to do all they can from keeping him in office.

Swing voters are going to determine the fate.

And to that end:

[b]I also predict that eventually swing voters will get so frustrated with Rep/Dem options, stakeholders will begin to heavily invest in reframing the independent party and run a candidate that will in years to come be elected as an independent president. 
[/b]
-l[/quote]

Disagree. We have a constitutional problem that makes 3rd parties nonstrategic from the voters' perspective. Until we have run-off elections for every federal and state office, two parties will continue to dominate because voters are smart enough to realize that 3rd parties are a "wasted" vote. The two parties are endemic to a structural failure by the Founding Fathers to require run-off elections for every elected office.

Until we fix that problems, voting for a 3rd party ends up electing your least desirable candidate.[/quote]

Speaking of which, the Libertarian Party got close to 5 million voters in 2016, probably including many "never Trump" Republicans.

My guess is that most of them will vote Trump in 2020, especially if Dems nominate a left-wing candidate.

Your take?[/quote]

I think many will continue voting Libertarian as a protest vote against Trump. Libertarians hate tariffs, socialist subsidies to farmers, deficits, and abortion bills. The Republican Party under Trump has completely abandoned Adam Smith-style capitalism.

The Republicans are not offering anything better viz a viz 2016. They likely won’t vote for a Democrat either. In fact, I bet the Libertarian candidate gets 6m votes, mainly from ex Republicans who can’t vote for a Democrat due to their rigid identities as “conservatives” and all the social signals associated with that identity. [/quote]

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