Reply to APS - HB Woodlawn Lottery

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I don’t understand why people find it so surprising that here are families with multiple kids who get into HB Woodlawn.  Think about who’s likely to apply.  Oldest kids whose families are interested obviously will apply, and families with one kid already there are likely to apply for younger kids because they’re having a good experience and it’s convenient to have your kids at the same school.  But if your orders kids didn’t get in, you’re probably going to be less interested in. Having your younger kids apply knowing that if they get in, you’ve given yourself the logistical hassle of kids at multiple schools. [b] I’d be surprised if the lottery pool wasn’t disproportinately younger siblings of kids already there[/b]. [/quote]

I would be surprised if it were, given how few students go there.  I have three children, all have gone through the lottery, none has been offered a spot.  Now that HB is switching to an annual lottery, I will reapply every year.  I know many families like mine.  [/quote]

But it’s seven years of school.  If you look at, for instance, Tuckahoe, they get three students per year so there are about 21 current students there from the Tuckahoe zone.  If a quarter of those students have younger siblings eligible in a given year (since siblings tend to be clumped within a few years of each other, but families with 3+ kids will be more spread out), that would mean about five of last year’s 39 applicants from Tuckahoe would be younger siblings, giving about a 35% chance that at least one of the three students admitted would be a younger sibling of a current student.[/quote]

Taking this one step further, if a family enters the lottery twice (and thus is paying attention to the results twice), this would create about a 58% chance that in at least one of those lotteries, the family would see at least one younger sibling of another HB student also admitted to HB.  If neither of the family’s kids get in, seeing another family get two kids in can encourage speculation that the system is rigged, even though the math demonstrates it’s the likely result.[/quote]

There is so much entitlement in Arlington that if a child doesn't win the HB lottery, too many parents immediately assume that something nefarious is going on. Sibling preference! Buckets of cash! Principal preference!

Maybe, just maybe, it was a random double blind lottery that someone else won. And this includes, on occasion, younger siblings. Each kid has an equal chance every time. So.... if a family already has a child there, their younger kid does not have a zero chance.

And, to answer the question about why there are more kids in the class than number of lottery slots, it's because of twins, and also because one of the County wide Autism programs is housed at HB and those slots are allotted through students' IEP teams, not through the lottery. Those slots are for kids with special needs and I have zero problem with that. [/quote]

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