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[quote=Anonymous]Good post on why Republicans shouldn't assume Jones' win was an outlier.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-shouldnt-assume-roy-moore-was-an-outlier/

[quote]
In all but a handful of the 239 Republican-held House seats, 26 Republican-held governorships and eight Republican-held Senate seats that are up for election next November, these factors will not line up for Democrats in quite as fortuitous a way as they did in Alabama. That’s a good thing for the GOP, because if Democrats won every House seat as red as Alabama, they’d gain something in the order of 160 House seats from Republicans next November.

Democrats need 25 House seats, not 160, to take over the House next year. And they need two Senate seats — not eight — to win that chamber. (Jones’s win has substantially upped the odds of a Senate takeover; Democrats face an awful map but now have a clearer path to victory than they did 24 hours ago.) In the 2010 midterms, Republicans didn’t win a single House seat as blue as Massachusetts.7 They nonetheless picked up 63 seats and delivered a crippling blow to Obama’s agenda. Not every race is going to go as badly for Republicans as this Alabama Senate election — but if enough go half as badly, or even a third as badly, they’re still in for a rough time next year.[/quote][/quote]

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