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[quote=Anonymous]The other thing to keep in mind is that the EU is still made up of 27 other countries. What the leadership of the EU says in Brussels doesn't necessarily reflect what the feelings are in the individual capitals across Europe. Merkel for example, has made statements urging patience and she is nowhere as rash as the leadership in Brussels, and Merkel is the most powerful figure in Europe.

We are in uncharted waters. Moods, opinions and beliefs will likely fluctuate widely from day to day over the next few weeks. I do think it's possible the UK will still not fully leave the EU. During the referendum David Cameron promised that if the country voted to Leave he would immediately invoke Article 50, but he's backtracked and refused to do that, which is rather telling. Even Johnson and Gove have said Article 50 doesn't need to be invoked right away. It's still possible that Merkel and a few other supporters will force Brussels to backtrack and offer substantial concessions and further opt outs to the UK as a compromise, giving it some sort of special status as a non full EU member but an affiliate of some type. It'll have some access to the single market, but will also have restrictions on unpopular policies such as the freedom of movement that so strongly drove the Leave vote. The question comes down to how much the EU really wants Britain in the EU and how much the EU is willing to become more flexible. I don't doubt that if the EU came back with substantial concessions that directly addressed UK Leave voters, enough would be convinced to switch to remaining in the EU.

What the British vote underscored is that there is dissent all across Europe towards the EU, not just in the UK. The one size fits all model of the EU has left many people unhappy and resentful. The EU itself has behaved badly towards a number of countries including Greece, Italy and Spain. There are a couple important elections coming up in the next year with results that could further challenge the authority of the EU. The EU has a choice: adopt a scorched earth policy towards its member countries, inflexible with no further compromises, or tack to a new direction that allows for much greater flexibility of arrangements between individual countries and the EU, more democratic input and curbs on EU policies that were once seen as sacrosanct, such as the freedom of population movement.

We will see, of course. Get your popcorn ready. It will be an entertaining year. [/quote]

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