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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Quickly.[/quote]

+1000000

We got one reject and 2 wait lists.  You are incredibly lucky to have a choice. Be polite but do so quickly so the school can offer the place to a family who is still hoping and waiting.[/quote]

I wish it worked that way but it doesn't. If someone declines an admission offer it does NOT automatically "open" a slot for someone else unless the school's yield is lower than expected.

Schools admit more kids than they hope to enroll, just as airlines overbook flights. Schools assume that not every accepted student will enroll, and they look at past "yield" rates from accepted and waitlisted student to whom offers are made, and decide based on that how many students to admit.

Example, oversimplifying a bit: School X wants a class of about 75 kids and has no continuing students from a lower grade. In past the last ten years approximately 75% of admitted students have enrolled, so School X sends out acceptance letters to 100 kids. Just in case, they also wait list 50 kids. If patterns are consistent with prior years, this yields School X the 75 kids they want, and even though 25% of accepted students have declined to enroll, they DO NO ACCEPT ANYONE from the wait list.

Obviously in real life it is more complex, because schools are also leery of getting over-enrolled or having too many (boy/girls/athletes/artsy kids/whatever). So they tend to do a more complex analysis -- maybe admitted boys enroll more frequently than admitted girls, or whatever. As long as they have historically been able to get a decent yield rate when they accept wait-listed kids, they also usually build in the assumption that they will end up taking at least some kids off the wait list. Basically they are balancing the risk of over-enrollment against the risk of under-enrollment. It's not a science.

But I say this just to remind people that you just can't assume that one kid declining means another kid gets in off the waitlist. Sometimes yes, but often no.

[/quote]

I feel like I post this every year, and always get shouted down.  Nobody wants to hear this.  Nobody wants to believe this.  I don't bother any more. [/quote]

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