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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]My numbers may be off (I said it was rough guess), but Chantilly is smack in the middle of a huge pool of TJ students. Also, no one in Carson is zoned for South Lakes. A few pupil place for IB. Leaving aside Lees Corner (those kids 25 may stay LLIV and go to Franklin) Oak Hill is a significant center, and sends nearly 100 kids to Carson for AAP,  which is 25% of the class, and I think a couple of other ESs are that feed to Carson are zoned Chantilly.  And Rocky Run is Chantilly pyramid, and the big/ one of the biggest feeders   (It's a half mile away). If even 55 or 60 Chantilly kids go to TJ, you're talking about the top 10% of the class (or half of the top 20%, because not every bright kid wants to go to TJ).  It makes sense.  Lot's of parents buy houses in this zone specifically to position kids for TJ by sending them to a TJ feeder MS (2 families w/MS kids on my street alone).  I'm not saying it makes Chantilly better-- I like the IB model.  But it is a big talent drain.  [/quote]

You still have some of your facts wrong.

You are completely wrong to say no one at Carson is zoned for South Lakes.  Fox Mill goes to Carson, and then South Lakes.  Part of Floris goes to Carson and then South Lakes.  AAP students from Crossfield go to Carson and some of those students are zoned for South Lakes (the rest go to Oakton).

There are nine ES schools that send their AAP kids to Carson, and only two of them (Oak Hill and Lees Corner) feed into Chantilly, in whole or in part.  The number of AAP kids from Navy and Waples Mill are about the same size as the number from Oak Hill.  So, again, only a fraction of the Carson kids are coming from Chantilly feeders.  The fact that Rocky Run is in the Chantilly "pyramid"  doesn't change the fact that Rocky Run AAP is largely composed of students whose base HS is not Chantilly, but instead Westfield, Centreville and Fairfax.

Of course, students who go to TJ are a "brain drain" on the schools they otherwise would have attended, but it's very difficult to come up with a solid estimate of the number of kids in each entering class at TJ who otherwise would have attended Chantilly.   [/quote]

I actually pulled the South Lakes zoning map and was really surprised how far up the toll road it goes.  I always thought areas like Fox Mill went Oakton.  My information was based on the fact that Carson's web site lists only Westfield, Oakton and Chantilly on blackboard in the high school info section and you would think they would know.  I do honestly think that TJ pulls many, many more kids from Chantilly than Robinson,  based on the area of the county and demographics, but you're right that probably nobody knows the real numbers because FCPS's zoning is so screwy (seriously: one middle school feeds 4 high schools, how does that happen??).  And it's not necessarily a great thing, because these parents can be insanely competitive. But really, all of this gets off track from the OPs question, because the kids who go to TJ don't contribute anything to their base high schools. [/quote]

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