Reply to 15 year vs. 30 year mortgage

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]But if I could confidently make more than 3% on my money, wouldn't it be a smarter investment to take out a 30 year loan, have a lower monthly payment, and invest the money instead in the stock market (again, only if I was sure to make more than 3%)?    [/quote]

First, explain how you can be "sure" you'll make any rate of return in the stock market? I have $1M in stocks, so I'm not anti-market, but there are certainly no guarantees.

Second, the point is to get rid of your mortgage, period. Pay it off as soon as you can. This is why I favor eliminating the mortgage deduction. People shouldn't be rewarded for paying interest.[/quote]

Nonsense.

Look, if you can't make 3% per annum over 15 years, we're all going to have bigger fish to fry than your mortgage.

You're not a goldbug by any chance? :)[/quote]

I agree it seems unlikely that you couldn't get 3% from investments, but far from impossible. If you look over history you will find 10 year periods of zero return. When you look at the size of the debt burden in the US and other advanced economies, the current elevated levels of profit as % of GDP, and the political polarization/obstructionism in Congress, it is not hard to make a case for very low returns over the next few years.[/quote]

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