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[quote=Anonymous]There may be issues with enrollment projections.  A copy of an email I just received:
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All-

Sorry for the delay getting this out, but I wanted to make sure my analysis was correct. I won't bore you with the statistical details, but here are the key findings:

1) Based on a simple linear regression model validated against 10 years of historical enrollment data for Great Falls ES, Colvin Run ES, Forestville ES, and Churchill Rd. ES, [b]FCPS Facilities Planning Services is underpredicting 2013 and 2014 General Education (GenEd) feeder school enrollment for Cooper MS by 292 and 432 students, respectively.[/b]  The historical enrollment data and 2013 & 2014 predictions are illustrated in the attachment.

2) The model predicts [b]likely GenEd enrollment in 2013 and 2014 will be 2985 and 2990 students,[/b] respectively, with better than 99.8% probability that there will be at least 2869 and 2874 students,  respectively.

3) [b]The probability that the FCPS projections provide an accurate upper bound on Cooper MS feeder school Gen Ed enrollment is statistically zero.[/b]  There is 1 chance in 17,000 that their 2013 prediction for Colvin Run ES is accurate; all other predictions have less than 1 chance in a billion. Cumulatively across all four elementary schools, the probability is so close to zero that my computer cannot calculate it.

4) [b]The GenEd enrollment for the FCPS school system as a whole is growing at 10 times the rate of the Cooper MS feeder schools,[/b]  so there is no possibility of moving  those 432 students elsewhere to fill "empty desks."

5) [b]These conclusions are echoed in statements from Sloan Presidio, FCPS Assistant Superintendent for Instructional Services.[/b]  In an internal email dated 14 December (after this proposal had been submitted to the Board by the FCPS Central Staff) and obtained by a FOIA request, Sloan stated [b]"...At the middle school level, Cooper, Franklin, and Thoreau may have capacity issues as well."[/b]

6) [b]There are no indications in the information provided to me by FCPS Facilities Planning Services that any statistically credible validation of their enrollment prediction model against historical data at the pyramid or school level has been performed,[/b] although that is the level at which the data is being applied. The only data provided in support of the accuracy of the model were provided at the overall FCPS level, with no indication that the model was validated at any lower level of aggregation.

I hope this data helps. Please feel free to forward it to parents and other stakeholders.

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http://www.keepandshare.com/doc/5552056/cooper-feeder-school-enrollment-projections-pdf-63k?da=y

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