Reply to My issue with stock market bubble fears

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]In nominal terms, it took about 25 years for the market to get back after the 1929 crash. But, if inflation adjusted and if you held and kept reinvesting all the dividends, it would have taken you about 10 years to get back to whole.

2008 was much less.

There's no doubt the current market is hyper-inflated. But how it plays out is anyone's guess.

The market isn't rational. The P/E ratios are nuts. AI is clearly in a blow off top.

But I have no idea how this is going to play out. Things aren't rational. [b]But there is a lot of money out there, and it needs someplace to go. [/b]

The market can be irrational for a long time. I'd be nervous if I was 50. And I'd be paying attention if I was 25. Waiting for the crash for the opportunities.

As an aside, I think it's nuts that we are all depending on Wall Street douchebags to be able to live when we get old.[/quote]

It's not just Wall St, it hasn't been just Wall St for a while, our economy is driven by speculation and stock market isn't the only game in town.  There is RE, crypto, precious metals, futures, currencies, and convoluted systems of derivatives for all of this that creates "funny money", ponzi schemes and rug pulls.

The entire system is a massive casino where we are the players, this has now become our retirement, and it's not enough to just work and save to ensure financial stability, you have to play in the casino or you automatically lose.  And you can lose in the casino, especially if you don't "cash out" your winnings and you stay long enough to keep playing..  The fear that people panic and start cashing out whatever they made to at least break even and not end up holding a bag is real.

To your other point "But there is a lot of money out there, and it needs someplace to go" - Yes, this is very true.  The issue we have is people sitting on wealth and not spending it (not supporting businesses, creating jobs), but simply watching their piles of money grow.  It's also because of the whole tax deferred 401K mass investment where there is a huge pile of money that cannot be touched without penalties.  It's the money tied in the "casino".

But something is going to happen soon.

Many hefty 401Ks are going to mature very soon and many already matured.  A lot of older people are sitting on massive retirement accounts that are multiples of what they actually need to retire.  There will be massive inheritance too where younger people will gain more purchasing power through their parents.  This money has to go somewhere.  The question is where it will go.  [/quote]

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