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[quote=Anonymous][size=9] [/size][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]People go on vacation in August and don't look at their portfolios.[/quote]

You can’t open your phone for 10 seconds to check on it while on vacation?

To the OP I think it’s mostly the AI bubble. Almost all the gains in US stocks have been from mag7 companies. Nvidia is making tons of money from the other mag7’s buying its GPU’s, however this might not be sustainable in the long term because the biggest customers to NVDA haven’t been profiting at all from their AI investments. Their customers do make a healthy profit from their other ventures which allows them to stay in the green, concealing the massive drain that AI has been on their profits. If the software AI bubble pops then hardware will follow, and this would collapse the US stock market [/quote]

This. There was a piece by Krugman (and others) essentially pointing out that the advent of the passive investor (e.g. Vanguard) led to availability of capital and clockwork purchases of the big firms (NVIDA, Apple, Amazon, Google) etc. which has driven this stock market rally. The fundamentals are completely misaligned with stock prices of many of these firms.[/quote]

I remember being worried about the majority of money being index funds and how that will distort the market in a viscous cycle — and Burry came along with same concern.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-04/michael-burry-explains-why-index-funds-are-like-subprime-cdos?embedded-checkout=true

But like they say, a bubble can stay inflated longer than you are solvent.

I do wonder if weakening dollar is one factor to; many companies are international companies, so their real value maybe stable but nominal value rises as the dollar deflates. Maybe. I’m more convinced of the index zombie markets than dollar pricing effects. [/quote]

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