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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The economic chaos will continue x10 if Trump kicks out the Fed chair.  The adults have completely left the White House.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/08/05/us/trump-news

Fed moves: President Trump said he has a four-person shortlist of possible replacements for Jerome H. Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve, and that he would reveal his choice “soon.” But he ruled out picking Scott Bessent after the Treasury secretary said he did not want the job. [/quote]

This nominee is for the open position on the board.  Powell's term as chairman ends in May next year.  This nominee may or may not eventually be nominated to be the chair or for another 14 year term.  [/quote]

The current empty spot has a term expiration in January 2026. They would then need to get re-nominated and re-confirmed again for the full 14-year term after January 2026.

My prediction is that Trump leaves that spot open. The Senate will not want waste floor team approving someone who has to be renominated in 3-4 months' time.

Separately, JP's term as Fed Chair expires in May 2026. He will still have another 19 months left on his term as a Fed Governor. If Trump picks an existing Fed Governor to be the Chair, that person would need to go through another nomination and confirmation process starting in June 2026 for that four-year term.

Just changing the Fed Chair won't be enough to change the path of interest rates. The FOMC membership rotates and the St. Louis and Richmond Reserve Banks are known for maintaining a tradition of "hawkish" positions, along with Dallas (but to a lesser extent). Minneapolis Reserve Bank is considered to be among the most dovish that would potentially align with Trump on cutting rates early. In 2026, the rotating FOMC members will be Cleveland, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Minneapolis - the hawks are shut out. [/quote] Rates have been dropping on their own irrespective of Fed policy across the entire curve since beginning of year. 2-year yield is now at 3.7 is well below Fed Funds at 4.25. So bond market says cut now. Also, two governors dissented last meeting b/c no cut, which is almost unheard of. Expect a cut in the fall, even if only .25%.[/quote]

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