Reply to Are we in a housing bubble?

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Reply to "Are we in a housing bubble?"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote]
Anonymous wrote:

We are going into a recession. So, yes, we are in a housing bubble right now.

No, we are not. [b]There is no such thing as a bubble in an around a capital city[/b]. In a recession like the one we had in 2008, prices stagnate in some places, decrease in iffy neighborhoods and those that are further out, and continue to rise, but not as quickly, is desirable close-in neighborhoods (with the good public schools, because some young families who might have put their kids in private decide to do public instead). Before and after a recession, real estate prices rise everywhere. There are many more years of non-recession than there are years of recession, so when you step back and look at a timeline over decades, you only see [b]slight dips within a continuously rising price line.[/b] Do not make the mistake of characterizing the periods before each dip as a "bubble", because that term implies a one-time short-lived increase unsupported by fundamentals. It's never that! Real estate prices increase naturally over time.[/quote]

You can define a "bubble" however you want. Maybe the title of the thread should be "is there going to be a dip in housing prices?"

Given the tariffs and government downsizing efforts, I would think we are going to see a dip in that continuous line that you are talking about. I think that is what the thread question is about. I think people wonder about a dip and how long the dip might last. There is some instability right now. [/quote]

PP you replied to. Words matter! A bubble burst does not equal a dip, for the reasons I explained above.

I agree that further out suburbs will see a softening of the market. DC and close-in suburbs of VA and MD, hmm... not right now. The current problem isn't recession (because there's isn't one right now), but deep uncertainty. People don't know whether they're coming or going. So I think it's more of a market freeze that we're seeing. Only the people who need to move are moving. If this administration continues on its suicidal mission to explode the global economy, then next year's spring market is going to crash, which isn't good for 99% of buyers, since these buyers will be out of jobs or financially stressed in other ways. If there's a gradual government spending course correction and easements on the worst of the tariffs, which I expect, because not even the crazies want to be blamed for the worst recession in living memory, then we might not see much, if any, consequence on the DC real estate market.

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