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Reply to "Assuming they are all independent separate events, the probability of receiving at least one acceptance is 33% if you ap"
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[quote=Anonymous]So much wrong -on both sides. Yes they are independent events, completely. But NO, you CANNOT use game theory to determine this with any degree of accuracy. Admissions rate is NOT the chance that any one individual applicant’s chances has at admission. You cannot know that number. Therefore you cannot use game theory formula with any accuracy whatsoever. It is not like a deck of cards or a pair of dice. If you don’t have accurate input to the formula, there can be no accurate output. Don’t fall into that trap.[/quote]
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