Reply to Alarm Bells Ringing: November 2023 Tech Layoffs & Government Disconnect

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
We may still suffer a crash and recession, but it will come from real estate issues (just like in China).

The tech sector is notoriously fickle, so I wouldn't base your predictions on it. I've observed a slump in biotech research, personally. But that's a niche area. My concern is mainly commercial real estate affecting the economy.

I know your post is mainly trying to agitate against one political side, but that's nonsense. Both Trump and Biden pumped huge sums into the economy to get out of the pandemic doldrums. No country is doing as well as the US, frankly. If we suffer something more serious, it won't be due to one party or the other. It will be due to China's real estate crash and subsequent banking rout, and real estate fragilities in the US market together with various energy-related wartime pressures.

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The real concern, IMHO, is that inflation is badly hitting too many people regardless of low unemployment figures. Real incomes are lower than a few years ago and the cost of essentials keeps going up or remaining stubbornly high. The tremors in the economy have to do with this. [/quote]

So? It's the 2009-2020 years that had abnormally low inflation and interest rates, OP. They're not going to get as low again in your lifetime, probably. And yet we haven't been lurching from recession to recession outside of those times. You don't seem to have any sort of historical context for your complaints.

Also, economic cycles are a part of life. You will probably live through many, but right now no one can predict the turn the economy will take in a year, not even the Federal Reserve or any experts. We're in new post-pandemic territory with regional conflicts popping up and China struggling with over-extension in real estate lending, and maybe looking to start another conflict just to distract itself. Very, very hard to predict what's going to happen.
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