Reply to What is the 5% chance at 42 based on?

Forum Index » Infertility Support and Discussion

Reply to "What is the 5% chance at 42 based on?"

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Oh, just to add:

[quote]at age 40, if you TTC every single cycle on your own, you will have a child within next 3 years.[/quote]
I'm not *totally* sure that's correct. Statistics are not my strong suit, let me say that first! But if you're talking about your conception chances over that three year time period, they're going to be higher at age 40 than age 43. It's not an equal chance every month for that 36 months.[/quote]

Yes, I know the chances change, but still the point holds. If your chance per cycle is 5%, then probability of getting pregnant within 12 cycles (a year of trying, more or less) is almost 50% i.e. very close to getting pregnant with 2 IVF trials with 0.30 probability of success per trial. At 40, the probability of conception is likely higher than 5% per cycle; at say 44 it's lower. But over the span of those years you will still have a cumulative probability of like 70% or so - equivalent of 3 IVFs.

So my point, is, I guess, that the number of trials is no less and probably more important than how "powerful" the trial is, especially since one can afford only so many IVFs. [/quote]

That was my thinking, and I tried for over three years, doing timed intercourse and medicated IUIs every single month, from when I was 42 until I was 45.  I was a very good responder and our timing was good every cycle.  But no luck.  So yes, IF the stats are correct, you have a fair shot.  But that doesn't mean it will work for you. (But I hope it will.)[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics